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+500 BCF - Next 5 Injections, tough summer coming for NG bulls
going to be a tough month to be long...
1) production sitting at record levels no matter how much bulls "hoped" that the rig count decline would finally matter
(rig count has been declining for 4 years with no production effect - silly thing to speculate on)
2) industrial demand is DOWN yoy according to Bentek and the utilities earnings calls
3) res/comm is now pretty much gone - freak March/April weather not going to help anymore
4) powerburn numbers are losing 6 bcf/d now and this is "baseload" generation... problem wont get any better in summer
5) U.S. ethylene prices hit four-month low in April - Ethane rejection adding perhaps 0.6 bcf/d to supply and getting worse
the bull case was built on "hope" that production would come down and demand would go up this summer... and the smart shops unloaded on the naive bulls who were looking at data that will matter maybe 12-18 months now
Rob has been wrong on every single one of the above points in his commentary... I have been warning you
Rob is a tremendous asset to the NG community... he obviously puts a lot of work into the modeling, its great work even if not always accurate... but at the same time, his commentary ignored some "facts on the ground" that have been emerging for the last 8 weeks or so...and that put people's capital at risk - which is completely unacceptable in my opinion
I would hope that Rob can present a more objective commentary in the future that includes views from both sides of the aisle - but ultimately, its his call how he wants to be known in the NG community
congratulations to those who looked at the data objectively... I hope you profited with me
better luck next time if you ignored the data that said your position was overextended and very risky