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Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
MODELING NOTE:  though catching up, several models remain down due to personal family issues (over the past couple years)
that previously crimped back on my work.  Though improving, I remain somewhat time constrained on both posting and modeling
updates.  I normally have a small backlog of modeling updates, but that backlog swelled and while being worked through now, it
still is at a point where some modeling (including industrial-side economics and especially natgas production) is hampered by the
backlog.
 
This has only a very minor impact on natgas storage modeling, and in no way impacts climate modeling, or degree/day modeling,
It does affect natgas production modeling the greatest, so that model is especially flagged as such in its "Part 6" post.  The
Generation Model also looks to be underestimating.
 
 
 
MICRO-ECONOMICS:  In the very near-term (last few days) last weeks noted 3-day tandem up-move reversed the day after I wrote
of it, and immediately went into a 6-day tandem down-move.
 
Last weeks strength (echoed in seasonals and food-group scheduling but opposed by the consumption models raw dailies) I thought
had a chance.  Even on the 6-day tandem down-move, the fundamentals are not clear cut, and on the macro-level we are adrift.
 
Note below in the 28-week avg personal consumption (3rd Column) the all-important low of 211.8 on January 21st & 22nd).  That is the
cycle bottom of a short-term expansion/contraction cycle, and the lowest point  since April '16.  If you are in business (and especially if
you distribute product in cardboard boxes that are manufactured by the regional behemoths of which the consumption index is comprised),
then you will probably see this expansion/contraction cycle in your monthly revenues.
 
..............................................................--28.week.avg---.........---Daily.(Raw)---.........Daily
...........................................................Industrial..Personal.....Industrial..Personal.......Food
.....................................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n.........Prod'n.....Cons'n.......Group
...................................01/14/17.............144.6........213.8...........2.481.......53.92........65948
...................................01/15/17.............144.7........213.2...........2.474.......53.20........66276
...................................01/16/17.............144.9........212.7...........2.474.......53.05........65912
...................................01/17/17.............145.0........212.8...........2.423.......53.05........65280
...................................01/18/17.............144.9........212.5...........2.370.......51.66........66259
...................................01/19/17.............144.9........211.8...........2.366.......52.76........65596
...................................01/20/17.............144.8........211.8...........2.360.......56.06........65540......Presidential inauguration
...................................01/21/17.............144.8........212.5...........2.387.......57.63........65996
...................................01/22/17.............144.8........213.5...........2.405.......59.13........67565
...................................01/23/17.............144.7........214.3...........2.358.......55.86........66014
...................................01/24/17.............144.8........215.5...........2.414.......58.02........67551
...................................01/25/17.............145.0........216.7...........2.460.......54.91........68862
...................................01/26/17.............145.2........217.2...........2.429.......51.91........67174
...................................01/27/17.............145.3........217.0...........2.336.......51.79........68077
...................................01/28/17.............145.4........216.7...........2.322.......51.61........64977
...................................01/29/17.............145.3........216.2...........2.350.......51.44........66156
...................................01/30/17.............145.2........215.7...........2.368.......52.67........65651
...................................01/31/17.............145.2........215.3...........2.398.......51.77........66728
...................................02/01/17.............145.1........215.2...........2.452.......50.52........64939
...................................02/02/17.............145.2........215.0...........2.483.......50.16........64188
...................................02/03/17.............144.9........214.9...........2.372.......49.90........65188
...................................02/04/17.............144.9........215.2...........2.444.......51.47........63637
...................................02/05/17.............145.0........215.3...........2.439.......51.47........63639
...................................02/06/17.............145.0........215.3...........2.421.......49.96........63220
...................................02/07/17.............145.0........215.3...........2.403.......50.46........65834
...................................02/08/17.............144.9........215.0...........2.393.......48.72........65856
...................................02/09/17.............144.7........214.8...........2.394.......49.76........64648
...................................02/10/17.............144.4........214.5...........2.331i......48.74i........63912i
...................................02/11/17.............144.3........214.3...........2.404i......50.51i........63860i
...................................02/12/17.............144.1........214.0...........2.410i......50.51i........65862i
...................................02/13/17.............143.9i.......213.7i...........2.408i......50.51i.......67100i
...................................02/14/17................n/a............n/a.............2.381i......50.14i.......64948i
 
 
 
MACRO-ECONOMICS: In the bigger picture, we remain in the midst of an economical sea-change, brought about by the election  of Donald
Trump in the early-morning hours of November 9th.
 
Industrial Production, which is traditionally more sensitive to the Republican side, understandably has rallied in response to the Trump win.
At the same time personal consumption, traditionally more sensitive to the Democratic side, understandably has eased.  This contrast
also points to President Trumps import stance.
 
With Trump's election, a signal went out from the electorate.  Marketing foreign goods is no longer cool.  So retail purchasing managers
start calling up US manufacturers en masse and US factory production begins to ramp up in spite of a sagging us economy.  US production
starts to displace foreign production and the resultant wage-gains are starting to flow through to make up for the sensitivity of the consumer
to their perceived loss of government.  It also makes up for the Federal Reserves rate hike in December.
 
............................................................Industrial...........Personal
..........................................................Production......Consumption
...................................10/08/16.............139.0.................222.0
...................................10/15/16.............138.8.................225.0
...................................10/22/16.............138.8.................227.9
...................................10/29/16.............138.0.................227.5
...................................11/05/16.............139.2.................226.0
...................................11/12/16.............139.6.................222.6.....Trump election known by morning of 11/09/16
...................................11/19/16.............140.6.................221.9
...................................11/26/16.............141.9.................222.2
...................................12/03/16.............141.3.................229.6
...................................12/10/16.............141.7.................220.6
...................................12/17/16.............142.3.................220.5
...................................12/24/16.............142.6.................221.4
...................................12/31/16.............143.1.................217.5
...................................01/07/17.............144.4.................215.9
...................................01/14/17.............144.6.................213.8
...................................01/21/17.............144.8.................212.5
...................................01/28/17.............145.4.................216.7
...................................02/04/17.............144.9.................215.2
...................................02/11/17.............144.3.................214.3
 
 
 
GLOBAL ECONOMICS:  For world Markets... the implied switch toward US industrial production that is evidenced in the gas flows also implies
a switch away from foreign industrial production, and I assume the worlds non-US economies are under pressure by more than the approx five
percent slip we see in the Gas-Flows in the US side.  Foreign economies under Trump will not be able to mass-export their way out of contraction
like they were able to do before.
 
For those nations who overextended themselves on exporting into the US, it now becomes imperative for them to stimulate their consumption
to absorb the goods that no longer can be sent into the US, to retain those goods for their own peoples.  They need to redirect liquidity into
their own consumers hands, and as they do they will not only save that portion of their manufacturing base that is at risk, but they will push
up on their own peoples standard of living to make life more comfortable for all.  If they fail to put liquidity into consumers hands, however,
they will cause that portion of their manufacturing base to collapse, inducing loss of employment and income for their workforce, inducing
loss of consumer-spending dollars and further loss of consumer spending, and the downward cycle repeats over and over until they do.
 
So in a way, I am both exuberant and afraid for countries like China and Mexico.  Exuberant, because those nations have the means to
improve their citizens way of life.  Afraid, because I do not know if they have the wisdom to know the gift that is so easily within their grasp.
Far more people know of growing an economy, than know how to grow an economy.
 
 
 
NATGAS:  Last weeks EIA report (152 BCF draw) came on the heals of colder (though seasonal) weather.  Baseline for the week came in at
a draw of 137 BCF, scoring the draw as 15 BCF to-the-bullish.  For the third week now, producing-region numbers strongly imply an unwinding
of the salt skew, which (if it progresses as per the wildness within my own modeling) lasts all the way through fall '16 and takes another 300 BCF
off of historical inventory, and gives us a theoretical maximum capacity of only 3,700 BCF for the fall peak.
 
Now, my emotional side is having trouble facing the question of salt-skew unwinding, as it casts a deep, dark shadow on the integrity of the EIA.
Should the unwind prove true over the coming weeks and months, next falls storage (3,700 BCF or under) will look rediculous enough on its own,
but if 3,700 BCF comes with a collapse in cash pricing (as we run out of storage) it will have twice the rediculousness.
 
And I cannot help to notice that the salt-skew unwind, starting nearly 4 weeks ago to this day, came right around innauguration day.
 
This weeks projection (119 BCF) comes on a return of milder temps that may mark the beginning of the end of winter and an early spring injection
season come early March.  I have seen mild winters fail about this time in several past years, and if we start needing to inject before switchover
(around April 1st) the cash markets will be an absolute mess.  
 
The all-important northern-hemisphere sea-ice totals have been below last-years mess-of-a-winter all season long.  Is there any real reason to
expect winter not to fail shortly?  Natgas looks to be a mess 'til June.
 
Next weeks projection (44 BCF) is very incomplete at the moment.
 
......=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
.........Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
......_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
......01/20/17...-22.2..-21.2...-19.4...-14.7...-15.0..-15.0...-11.5...-118.0.......-102......-111.......-119.........-100..............-325.........-16......-235.......-219
......01/27/17.....-8.2....-6.5.....-9.9...-14.8...-13.9..-15.4...-18.2.....-86.0.........-84........-85.........-87...........-67..............-251..........68.......-170......-130
......02/03/17...-22.4..-20.5...-22.5...-21.1...-18.5..-20.0...-22.0...-146.0.......-145......-146.......-152.........-137..............-322..........49.......-224......-140
......02/10/17...-23.3..-18.5...-14.8...-12.3...-12.1..-16.1...-22.0...-118.0.......-126......-119.......................-106..............-302..........88.......-210.......-103
......02/17/17...-10.7....-6.5i....-8.8i..-10.2i..-10.9i......1.7i.....1.6i....-43.8i........-73i........-44i...........................................-237........163.......-164i........-54i
 
 
 
DAILY GLOBAL WARMING MODEL:  A new record was set for the lowest southern hemisphere sea ice measurement on the 10th.  That was followed
by two more on the 12th and 13th, with lots more to follow over the weeks to come:
 
..............................========================================Estimate of Changes to Global Sea Ice Inventories (Square Miles)=========================================
..............................------------------------------------Northern Hemisphere------------------------------------................-------------------------------------Southern Hemisphere------------------------------------
......................................................................................................................Net Effect Of.........................................................................................................................Net Effect
..............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------....................................Hemispheric...............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------.....................................Hemispheric
...................................Two............One...............................Net.........................Cooling.......30-Day.......................Two...........One................................Net.........................Cooling........30-Day
......____________Years Ago_ Year Ago__Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__Average________Years Ago_ Year Ago__ Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__ Average
......02/07/17............3220279....3191441....3129399.......-12788..........5247.......-18035..........-208...................1082310......897871......838157..........8597.........-7643........16241..........3328
......02/08/17............3238374....3193231....3126658.........-2740..........5203.........-7944..........-651...................1073145......887463......830374.........-7782.........-7295...........-486..........3212
......02/09/17............3242258....3175458....3132404..........5746..........5055............691...........-301...................1064094......883290......820707.........-9666........-6938.........-2728..........3326
......02/10/17............3238412....3165029....3135854..........3449..........5025.........-1575...........-401...................1054989......879769......806525......-14182.........-6582.........-7599..........3539
......02/11/17............3239588....3174803....3121345.......-14509..........4996.......-19506..........-252...................1049800......874771......807971..........1446.........-6243..........7689..........4241
......02/12/17............3242552....3183948....3145986........24641..........4853........19787............500...................1047628......869265......798741.........-9230.........-5867........-3362..........3645
......02/13/17............3246141....3187593....3152685..........6698..........4871..........1827............836...................1045967......862811......798720.............-21.........-5357..........5336..........4100
 
......Minimum............................(09/11/12).....928478............................................................................................................(02/21/11)....809980
......Maximum...........................(02/25/98)...3585826............................................................................................................(09/20/14)..4334299
 
I have also been posting over the last couple months on the possibility of sea-ice shelf breakup, and that probably comes from the "Larson C" ice shelf
which has reported cracking that likely next brings news of the calving of the largest iceberg ever observed.  We shall see.
 
 
 
Today's refining numbers...
 
...................................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling
...............Weeklies......Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)
...............12/27/13............451...............06/27/14............397...............12/26/14............444...............06/26/15............376...............12/25/15............459...............06/24/16............384...............12/23/16............461
...............01/03/14............447...............07/04/14............394...............01/02/15............448...............07/03/15............382...............01/01/16............450...............07/01/16............389...............12/30/16............459
...............01/10/14............429...............07/11/14............403...............01/09/15............431...............07/10/15............399...............01/08/16............438...............07/08/16............394...............01/06/17............457
...............01/17/14............441...............07/18/14............382...............01/16/15............428...............07/17/15............405...............01/15/16............437...............07/15/16............411...............01/13/17............454
...............01/24/14............420...............07/25/14............379...............01/23/15............419...............07/24/15............399...............01/22/16............441...............07/22/16............411...............01/20/17............461
...............01/31/14............392...............08/01/14............438...............01/30/15............415...............07/31/15............398...............01/29/16............424...............07/29/16............417...............01/27/17............460
...............02/07/14............411...............08/08/14............419...............02/06/15............425...............08/07/15............395...............02/05/16............437...............08/05/16............409...............02/03/17............437
...............02/14/14............419...............08/15/14............412...............02/13/15............435...............08/14/15............390...............02/12/16............458...............08/12/16............405...............02/10/17............463i
...............02/21/14............442...............08/22/14............381...............02/20/15............420...............08/21/15............373...............02/19/16............441...............08/19/16............401...............02/17/17............484i
...............02/28/14............410...............08/29/14............384...............02/27/15............428...............08/28/15............384...............02/26/16............468...............08/26/16............417
...............03/07/14............438...............09/05/14............395...............03/06/15............446...............09/04/15............394...............03/04/16............467...............09/02/16............426
...............03/14/14............431...............09/12/14............387...............03/13/15............447...............09/11/15............413...............03/11/16............449...............09/09/16............414
...............03/21/14............452...............09/19/14............390...............03/20/15............445...............09/18/15............402...............03/18/16............447...............09/16/16............406
...............03/28/14............452...............09/26/14............380...............03/27/15............435...............09/25/15............379...............03/25/16............440...............09/23/16............418
...............04/04/14............431...............10/03/14............382...............04/03/15............453...............10/02/15............386...............04/01/16............439...............09/30/16............419
...............04/11/14............426...............10/10/14............385...............04/10/15............467...............10/09/15............390...............04/08/16............366...............10/07/16............432
...............04/18/14............458...............10/17/14............387...............04/17/15............448...............10/16/15............395...............04/15/16............397...............10/14/16............446
...............04/25/14............420...............10/24/14............380...............04/24/15............442...............10/23/15............406...............04/22/16............374...............10/21/16............418
...............05/02/14............383...............10/31/14............426...............05/01/15............428...............10/30/15............428...............04/29/16............413...............10/28/16............400
...............05/09/14............397...............11/07/14............354...............05/08/15............404...............11/06/15............424...............05/06/16............416...............11/04/16............431
...............05/16/14............404...............11/14/14............416...............05/15/15............411...............11/13/15............452...............05/13/16............420...............11/11/16............444
...............05/23/14............415...............11/21/14............456...............05/22/15............426...............11/20/15............467...............05/20/16............424...............11/18/16............464
...............05/30/14............405...............11/28/14............463...............05/29/15............406...............11/27/15............465...............05/27/16............411...............11/25/16............472
...............06/06/14............400...............12/05/14............446...............06/05/15............402...............12/04/15............459...............06/03/16............400...............12/02/16............469
...............06/13/14............399...............12/12/14............426...............06/12/15............409...............12/11/15............446...............06/10/16............399...............12/09/16............456
...............06/20/14............401...............12/19/14............439...............06/19/15............379...............12/18/15............455...............06/17/16............383...............12/16/16............473
 
 
 
...................................Scheduling....Weeks
................Dailies......... (MMCF).........Avg
...............01/14/17.(w)......457
...............01/15/17.(w)......456
...............01/16/17............451
...............01/17/17............453
...............01/18/17............474
...............01/19/17............468
...............01/20/17............467.............461
 
...............01/21/17.(w)......462
...............01/22/17.(w)......463
...............01/23/17............464
...............01/24/17............471
...............01/25/17............484
...............01/26/17............474
...............01/27/17............402.............460
 
...............01/28/17.(w)......401
...............01/29/17.(w)......397
...............01/30/17............403
...............01/31/17............483
...............02/01/17............482
...............02/02/17............485
...............02/03/17............406.............437
 
...............02/04/17.(w)......483
...............02/05/17.(w)......483
...............02/06/17............480
...............02/07/17............469
...............02/08/17............462
...............02/09/17............465
...............02/10/17............401i............463i
 
...............02/11/17.(w)......476i
...............02/12/17.(w)......480i
...............02/13/17............497i............484i
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)