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Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MODELING NOTE: though catching up, several models remain down due to personal family issues (over the past couple years)
that previously crimped back on my work. Though improving, I remain somewhat time constrained on both posting and modeling
updates. I normally have a small backlog of modeling updates, but that backlog swelled and while being worked through now, it
still is at a point where some modeling (including industrial-side economics and especially natgas production) is hampered by the
backlog.

This has only a very minor impact on natgas storage modeling, and in no way impacts climate modeling, or degree/day modeling,
It does affect natgas production modeling the greatest, so that model is especially flagged as such in its "Part 6" post. The
Generation Model also looks to be underestimating.

MICRO-ECONOMICS: Last weeks post left us with a 4-day tandem down-move and uncertainty within both micro and macro trends.
Since, the tandem down-move added one more day, then rolled into a more teeter-totter look as the consumption side turned and
started higher.

Food-group scheduling (noted as a tad supportive in last weeks post) moved bullishly lower in improved support to the consumption
side.

On the industrial side, weakness now abounds with a 34-day down-move taking the index from its ultimate 145.4 January 28th high
all the way down to 141.1 on March 13th (its latest read, and its lowest since December 6th).

On the consumption side, the recent 6-day up-draft takes us to 215.9, now well above the all-important February 21st bottom (211.5),
which is the lowest on the index since April 1st 2016.

..............................................................--28.week.avg---.........---Daily.(Raw)---.........Daily
...........................................................Industrial..Personal.....Industrial..Personal.......Food
.....................................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n.........Prod'n.....Cons'n.......Group
...................................02/11/17.............144.3........214.3...........2.404.......50.51........63860
...................................02/12/17.............144.1........214.0...........2.410.......50.51........65862
...................................02/13/17.............143.9........213.7...........2.378.......50.01........67025
...................................02/14/17.............143.8........213.4...........2.366.......50.14........64826
...................................02/15/17.............143.8........213.2...........2.391.......49.22........64276
...................................02/16/17.............143.7........212.9...........2.369.......49.39........65307
...................................02/17/17.............143.7........212.7...........2.360.......51.29........64701
...................................02/18/17.............143.6........212.5...........2.353.......51.41........57379
...................................02/19/17.............143.5........212.0...........2.345.......51.41........57296
...................................02/20/17.............143.4........211.9...........2.359.......51.41........57029
...................................02/21/17.............143.2........211.5...........2.372.......51.41........58385
...................................02/22/17.............143.0........211.7...........2.432.......54.76........57449
...................................02/23/17.............142.9........211.7...........2.415.......50.31........58249
...................................02/24/17.............142.7........211.7...........2.310.......49.45........54836
...................................02/25/17.............142.6........212.1...........2.258.......49.82........53266
...................................02/26/17.............142.5........212.6...........2.280.......49.82........53194
...................................02/27/17.............142.4........213.2...........2.277.......51.11........52979
...................................02/28/17.............142.3........213.8...........2.385.......52.69........58387
...................................03/01/17.............142.2........213.8...........2.365.......49.86........63562
...................................03/02/17.............141.9........213.9...........2.311.......49.22........64485
...................................03/03/17.............141.9........213.8...........2.350.......48.44........64241
...................................03/04/17.............141.7........213.6...........2.311.......49.87........59744
...................................03/05/17.............141.5r.......213.5...........2.303.......49.87........61789
...................................03/06/17.............141.4........213.5...........2.298.......49.87........61050
...................................03/07/17.............141.4........213.5...........2.312.......48.50........62803
...................................03/08/17.............141.3........213.7...........2.316.......48.38........59350
...................................03/09/17.............141.3........214.0...........2.330.......49.33........58670
...................................03/10/17.............141.3........214.3...........2.347.......49.19........55982
...................................03/11/17.............141.3........214.4...........2.348i......49.04i........54536i
...................................03/12/17.............141.2........215.2...........2.356i......53.55i........55940i
...................................03/13/17.............141.1i.......215.9i...........2.328i......50.63i........55567i

MACRO-ECONOMICS: In the bigger picture, we remain in the midst of an economic sea-change, brought about by the election of Donald
Trump. Immediately following the November Elections, Optimism was brought to the industrial and investment sides of the economy. For
the consumption side however, the economy has been pressured by the political side (consumption tends to be more sympathetic towards
Democrats while industry and investment tend to be more sympathetic towards Republicans).

Secondly, the Federal Reserve has begun what looks to be a quarterly program to raise interest rates, with the first round in December and
the second round announced just today for March.

Industrial Production, traditionally more sensitive to the Republican side, understandably rallied in response to the Trump win, and did
so through January 28th. That phase, however, has been completed and the industrial side has passed on to phase two... coming back
down to earth to the recognition of the reality of the damage done already by the Federal Reserve, and its resultant consumption plunge.

The equities side continues higher, and I just don't know if that stops or continues as I don't know whether the Federal Reserve wakes
up to its own damage before wall street does. That damage will creep into the monthly & quarterly numbers as we go forward, and as it
does it eventually betray the credibility of the Federal Reserve and thwart its interest raising ambitions once that damage becomes publicly
known. But the equities side has to be questioned in the light of Federal Reserve actions, which will lead us into recession if unchecked.

I have been quite outspoken against the Federal Reserve, and continue to be so. The Federal Reserve has been fearful of inflation for
decades, yet it appears to me that the forces of inflation are so hard to start that it is only the most incompetent of governments that create
it. I seriously doubt that wages, on their own, can keep up with productivity. Business is just far too competitive and wage-earners are
just too powerless.

All the world has been fighting economic slowdown with quantitative easing and other means of monetary expansion. Yet where is the inflation?

Yes the crazies of the world (like China cutting off its goods to its own people so the "Peoples Republic" can trade away its peoples goods
to the US for cold hard cash... or like Venezuela stripping bare its industrial capital base thinking it doesn't need it)... the crazies of the world
can create inflation. The US did it to itself in the 70's. But how common are those times?

............................................................Industrial...........Personal
..........................................................Production......Consumption
...................................10/15/16.............138.8.................225.0
...................................10/22/16.............138.8.................227.9
...................................10/29/16.............138.0.................227.5
...................................11/05/16.............139.2.................226.0
...................................11/12/16.............139.6.................222.6.....Trump election known by morning of 11/09/16
...................................11/19/16.............140.6.................221.9
...................................11/26/16.............141.9.................222.2
...................................12/03/16.............141.3.................229.6
...................................12/10/16.............141.7.................220.6
...................................12/17/16.............142.3.................220.5
...................................12/24/16.............142.6.................221.4
...................................12/31/16.............143.1.................217.5
...................................01/07/17.............144.4.................215.9
...................................01/14/17.............144.6.................213.8
...................................01/21/17.............144.8.................212.5
...................................01/28/17.............145.4.................216.7
...................................02/04/17.............144.9.................215.2
...................................02/11/17.............144.3.................214.3
...................................02/18/17.............143.6.................212.5
...................................02/25/17.............142.6.................212.1
...................................03/04/17.............141.7.................213.6
...................................03/11/17.............141.3.................214.4

GLOBAL ECONOMICS: For world Markets... the implied switch toward US industrial production that is evidenced in the gas flows through
January 28th (First Trump Phase) implied a switch away from foreign industrial production, and I assume the worlds non-US economies
slipped in that phase as it became a little more trendy in the US to buy "Made-in-the-US" products than to purchase imported goods.

Since January 28th (Second Trump Phase) we have been seeing a backtracking of US industrial production against consumption, and that
brings into question the permanence of the "Buy-American" fad of the first phase. It may be that the foreign-manufacturing side is regaining
the ground it lost previously, at the expense of US manufacturing, to protect the global economy while re-exposing the US economy to the
pressures previously exerted against the US.

If true, the global markets had one heck of a downdraft through the end of January, but are coming back now at the expense of US global
competitiveness.

This could explain the recent wishey-washy-ness of oil. OPEC cut production 2 million barrels per day, and we all got excited. Yet 2 MMBPD
in a 90 MMBPD global market is just over two percent of consumption. Slow the globe five percent, and your two percent OPEC cut is
gone.

NATGAS: Last weeks EIA report (68 BCF withdrawal) came on cooler weather than the mild, spring-like week before. Baseline was for a
43 BCF withdrawal, scoring the week 25 BCF to-the-bullish.

This weeks projection (55 BCF withdrawn) comes on weather just a bit milder than the prior week. Baseline came in at 39 BCF withdrawn,
scoring the projection as 16 BCF to-the-bullish.

Next weeks projection is 117 BCF withdrawn already, with a bit more counting to go.

......=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
.........Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
......_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
......02/17/17...-12.2....-7.9...-10.9...-13.0...-14.4..-17.5...-13.1.....-88.0.......-109........-79.........-89...........-71..............-245........166.......-170........-52
......02/24/17.....-1.0......2.9......2.6......1.3......1.7......0.4....-0.9........7.0.........-21............7............7............23..............-186........298.......-131..........54
......03/03/17.....-6.9..-11.0...-11.6.....-8.6.....-4.4....-7.8...-13.6.....-63.0.........-62........-64.........-68...........-43..............-198........365.......-125........126
......03/10/17...-14.2..-11.7.....-7.4.....-4.7.....-3.4....-6.3.....-7.7.....-55.4.........-85........-55.........................-39..............-235........398.......-160........140
......03/17/17...-20.6..-19.1...-17.9i..-19.7i..-18.1i..-17.2i....-4.4i..-116.9i......-125i......-117i...........................................-365........296.......-289i.........30i

DAILY GLOBAL WARMING MODEL: The NSIDC data is back (finally) so moving forward. The southern hemisphere's minimum is now in, with
the new record at 764,252 square miles (03/03/17) vs the previous record at 809,980 (02/21/11).

..............................========================================Estimate of Changes to Global Sea Ice Inventories (Square Miles)=========================================
..............................------------------------------------Northern Hemisphere------------------------------------................-------------------------------------Southern Hemisphere------------------------------------
......................................................................................................................Net Effect Of.........................................................................................................................Net Effect
..............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------....................................Hemispheric...............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------.....................................Hemispheric
...................................Two............One...............................Net.........................Cooling.......30-Day.......................Two...........One................................Net.........................Cooling........30-Day
......____________Years Ago_ Year Ago__Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__Average________Years Ago_ Year Ago__ Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__ Average
......02/26/17............3239617....3225620....3212781.........-8597..........1773.......-10370..............38...................1047525......871674......782708........-1122..........4731.........-5854..........2245
......02/27/17............3232629....3237913....3211301.........-1479..........1718.........-3198............209...................1052030......872090......778061........-4647..........5813.......-10460..........1847
......02/28/17............3237191....3252735....3226198........14896..........1540........13355............805...................1055869......874185......771693.........-6368..........6867.......-13235..........1356
......03/01/17............3234045....3242153....3225343...........-855..........1336.........-2191............677...................1057018......881367......767027........-4665..........7655.......-12320............510
......03/02/17............3224589....3237023....3233638..........8295..........1144..........7151............378...................1061708......887356......767905............877..........8278.........-7401...........-116
......03/03/17............3223814....3223080....3235620..........1981............978..........1003............135...................1073404......900254......764252.........-3652..........8922.......-12575..........-916
......03/04/17............3217360....3206724....3230244.........-5376............696.........-6072............146...................1082747......912536......771288..........7035..........9568........-2533...........-994
......03/05/17............3221172....3209153....3232571..........2327............293..........2033.............-89...................1091539......922794......776345..........5057........10420.........-5363........-1442
......03/06/17............3222594....3217718....3228614.........-3957...........-173........-3783............325...................1102560......930926......776926............581........11378.......-10797.........-2050
......03/07/17............3206734....3223561....3229067............452...........-439............892............366...................1113892......943391......779405..........2479........12254.........-9775........-2440
......03/08/17............3200883....3219786....3216263.......-12803...........-619......-12183...........-318...................1127104......952373......794661........15256........13096..........2159.........-2669
......03/09/17............3204323....3221389....3210309.........-5953...........-930........-5023............115...................1143919......967592......809178........14517........13773............744.........-3185
......03/10/17............3206069....3222008....3214615..........4305.........-1248..........5554............565...................1169831......978929......815951..........6772........14192.........-7419........-3415
......03/11/17............3213070....3222481....3229601........14985.........-1627........16613..........1097...................1192548......990654......821745..........5794........14379.........-8584........-3609
......03/12/17............3216300....3228206....3226583.........-3018.........-1769........-1249..........1110...................1209371....1010352......837647........15901........14430..........1470.........-3305

......Minimum............................(09/11/12).....928478............................................................................................................(02/21/11)....809980...(Record Broken 03/03/17)
......Maximum...........................(02/25/98)...3585826............................................................................................................(09/20/14)..4334299

I have also been posting over the last couple months on the possibility of sea-ice shelf breakup, and that probably comes from the "Larson C" ice shelf
which has reported cracking of more than 100 miles in length now, traversing its ~1150 foot thickness. That likely next brings news of the calving of the
largest iceberg ever observed. We shall see.

Today's refining numbers...

...................................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling
...............Weeklies......Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)
...............12/27/13............451...............06/27/14............397...............12/26/14............444...............06/26/15............376...............12/25/15............459...............06/24/16............384...............12/23/16............461
...............01/03/14............447...............07/04/14............394...............01/02/15............448...............07/03/15............382...............01/01/16............450...............07/01/16............389...............12/30/16............459
...............01/10/14............429...............07/11/14............403...............01/09/15............431...............07/10/15............399...............01/08/16............438...............07/08/16............394...............01/06/17............457
...............01/17/14............441...............07/18/14............382...............01/16/15............428...............07/17/15............405...............01/15/16............437...............07/15/16............411...............01/13/17............454
...............01/24/14............420...............07/25/14............379...............01/23/15............419...............07/24/15............399...............01/22/16............441...............07/22/16............411...............01/20/17............461
...............01/31/14............392...............08/01/14............438...............01/30/15............415...............07/31/15............398...............01/29/16............424...............07/29/16............417...............01/27/17............460
...............02/07/14............411...............08/08/14............419...............02/06/15............425...............08/07/15............395...............02/05/16............437...............08/05/16............409...............02/03/17............437
...............02/14/14............419...............08/15/14............412...............02/13/15............435...............08/14/15............390...............02/12/16............458...............08/12/16............405...............02/10/17............463
...............02/21/14............442...............08/22/14............381...............02/20/15............420...............08/21/15............373...............02/19/16............441...............08/19/16............401...............02/17/17............477
...............02/28/14............410...............08/29/14............384...............02/27/15............428...............08/28/15............384...............02/26/16............468...............08/26/16............417...............02/24/17............458
...............03/07/14............438...............09/05/14............395...............03/06/15............446...............09/04/15............394...............03/04/16............467...............09/02/16............426...............03/03/17............415
...............03/14/14............431...............09/12/14............387...............03/13/15............447...............09/11/15............413...............03/11/16............449...............09/09/16............414...............03/10/17............424
...............03/21/14............452...............09/19/14............390...............03/20/15............445...............09/18/15............402...............03/18/16............447...............09/16/16............406...............03/17/17............454i
...............03/28/14............452...............09/26/14............380...............03/27/15............435...............09/25/15............379...............03/25/16............440...............09/23/16............418
...............04/04/14............431...............10/03/14............382...............04/03/15............453...............10/02/15............386...............04/01/16............439...............09/30/16............419
...............04/11/14............426...............10/10/14............385...............04/10/15............467...............10/09/15............390...............04/08/16............366...............10/07/16............432
...............04/18/14............458...............10/17/14............387...............04/17/15............448...............10/16/15............395...............04/15/16............397...............10/14/16............446
...............04/25/14............420...............10/24/14............380...............04/24/15............442...............10/23/15............406...............04/22/16............374...............10/21/16............418
...............05/02/14............383...............10/31/14............426...............05/01/15............428...............10/30/15............428...............04/29/16............413...............10/28/16............400
...............05/09/14............397...............11/07/14............354...............05/08/15............404...............11/06/15............424...............05/06/16............416...............11/04/16............431
...............05/16/14............404...............11/14/14............416...............05/15/15............411...............11/13/15............452...............05/13/16............420...............11/11/16............444
...............05/23/14............415...............11/21/14............456...............05/22/15............426...............11/20/15............467...............05/20/16............424...............11/18/16............464
...............05/30/14............405...............11/28/14............463...............05/29/15............406...............11/27/15............465...............05/27/16............411...............11/25/16............472
...............06/06/14............400...............12/05/14............446...............06/05/15............402...............12/04/15............459...............06/03/16............400...............12/02/16............469
...............06/13/14............399...............12/12/14............426...............06/12/15............409...............12/11/15............446...............06/10/16............399...............12/09/16............456
...............06/20/14............401...............12/19/14............439...............06/19/15............379...............12/18/15............455...............06/17/16............383...............12/16/16............473

...................................Scheduling....Weeks
................Dailies......... (MMCF).........Avg
...............02/11/17.(w)......476
...............02/12/17.(w)......480
...............02/13/17............482
...............02/14/17............481
...............02/15/17............486
...............02/16/17............473
...............02/17/17............459.............477

...............02/18/17.(w)......468
...............02/19/17.(w)......471
...............02/20/17............470
...............02/21/17............466
...............02/22/17............470
...............02/23/17............473
...............02/24/17............390.............458

...............02/25/17.(w)......375
...............02/26/17.(w)......384
...............02/27/17............389
...............02/28/17............479
...............03/01/17............464
...............03/02/17............396
...............03/03/17............419.............415

...............03/04/17.(w)......404
...............03/05/17.(w)......400
...............03/06/17............392
...............03/07/17............442
...............03/08/17............447
...............03/09/17............441
...............03/10/17............442.............424

...............03/11/17.(w)......453i
...............03/12/17.(w)......453i
...............03/13/17............455i............454i
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)