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Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MODELING NOTE: though catching up, several models remain down due to personal family issues (over the past couple years)
that previously crimped back on my work. Though improving, I remain somewhat time constrained on both posting and modeling
updates. I normally have a small backlog of modeling updates, but that backlog swelled and while being worked through now, it
still is at a point where some modeling (including industrial-side economics and especially natgas production) is hampered by the
backlog.

This has only a very minor impact on natgas storage modeling, and in no way impacts climate modeling, or degree/day modeling,
It does affect natgas production modeling the greatest, so that model is especially flagged as such in its "Part 6" post. The
Generation Model also looks to be underestimating.

MICRO-ECONOMICS: Easter-Season aberrations (against statistical norms) put this weeks analysis in a bit of a fog. The pre-Easter
strength of the last few weeks, once Easter-Vacation began, fell away (predictably) to the norms as the US breaks. This brings about
an artificial softening in the economic models that masks whatever strength underlies, making the economy a difficult call until we
emerge from the vacation season (starting April 24th).

On the industrial side, the up-move broke last Tuesday April 11th, with us drifting since from 144.4 (April 10th) to 144.0 on the 18th. the
drift lower should persist through April 23rd. Then Monday (the 24th) we reemerge and see where we go from there. The prior peak
(144.4) was the highest for the industrial index since February 9th.

On the consumption side, the up-move broke Sunday, April 9th, and we have drifted from 223.7 to 221.5 in today's latest read. The
April 8th peak (223.7) was the highest for the consumption index rose to its highest since November 9th.

..............................................................--28.week.avg---.........---Daily.(Raw)---.........Daily
...........................................................Industrial..Personal.....Industrial..Personal.......Food
.....................................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n.........Prod'n.....Cons'n.......Group
...................................03/19/17.............141.6........218.6...........2.368.......52.14........60357
...................................03/20/17.............141.7........219.1...........2.376.......52.14........59553
...................................03/21/17.............141.8........219.3...........2.322.......49.67........61816
...................................03/22/17.............141.8........218.8...........2.343.......48.24........62404
...................................03/23/17.............141.8........219.2...........2.357.......49.35........62502
...................................03/24/17.............142.0........219.6...........2.381.......50.51........59761
...................................03/25/17.............142.3........219.9...........2.354.......50.91........57568
...................................03/26/17.............142.5........220.0...........2.328.......50.91........57467
...................................03/27/17.............142.6........219.8...........2.312.......50.91........51646
...................................03/28/17.............142.6........219.5...........2.350.......49.05........48719
...................................03/29/17.............142.6........219.6...........2.384.......49.47........52761
...................................03/30/17.............142.7........219.8...........2.396.......50.10........48172
...................................03/31/17.............142.9........220.6...........2.439.......54.31........52307
...................................04/01/17.............143.2........221.2...........2.390.......49.97........60881
...................................04/02/17.............143.4........221.6...........2.379.......49.97........60842
...................................04/03/17.............143.7........222.1...........2.362.......50.67........58535
...................................04/04/17.............143.9........222.6...........2.326.......50.79........63960
...................................04/05/17.............144.1........223.2...........2.294.......51.76........64124
...................................04/06/17.............144.2........223.3...........2.310.......50.32........65038..........US bombing of Syrian Airfield
...................................04/07/17.............144.4........223.5...........2.339.......50.15........63829
...................................04/08/17.............144.4........223.7...........2.262.......48.50........62710
...................................04/09/17.............144.4........223.2...........2.252.......48.51........62788
...................................04/10/17.............144.4........223.0...........2.231.......48.51........61551
...................................04/11/17.............144.3r.......222.8r..........2.260......47.82........65491
...................................04/12/17.............144.3r.......223.1r..........2.326......48.15........66578
...................................04/13/17.............144.4........223.3...........2.322.......48.44........64461
...................................04/14/17.............144.3........223.3...........2.263.......47.93........62906
...................................04/15/17.............144.2........222.8...........2.263i......47.93i.......65152i
...................................04/16/17.............144.1........222.2...........2.248i......47.93i.......66048i
...................................04/17/17.............144.0........221.6...........2.211i......47.93i.......64273i
...................................04/18/17.............144.0i.......221.5...........2.266i......48.69i.......65250i

MACRO-ECONOMICS: In the bigger picture, we remain in the midst of an economic sea-change, brought about by the election of Donald
Trump. Immediately following the November Elections, Optimism was brought to the industrial and investment sides of the economy. For
the consumption side however, the economy has been pressured by the political side (consumption tends to be more sympathetic towards
Democrats while industry and investment tend to be more sympathetic towards Republicans).

Secondly, the Federal Reserve has begun what looks to be a quarterly program to raise interest rates, with the first round in December and
the second round recently announced for March.

Industrial Production, traditionally more sensitive to the Republican side, understandably rallied in response to the Trump win, and did
so through January 28th. That phase, however, paused as the industrial side softened into the downtrend of the consumption side, and the
economy as a whole lingered in that softness (brought about by the consumption side, which had reeled to near 12-month lows since the
elections last fall on the combination of (Democrat-side) consumer-malaise and Federal Reserve tightening).

Then, on March 8th, the consumption side turned strongly higher, with the industrial side (predictably) following suit by itself turning a week
later. Initially the industrial side's rally was anemic, but about the time of the Obamacare Repeal-And-Replacement failure, the industrial
side picked up with abandon. Interestingly, the Industrial (Republican) side seemed to like the Repeal-and-Replace failure better than the
Consumption (Democrat) side, which was the polar-opposite of what I would have expected. Nonetheless, the economy on both sides
did work higher even through the Repeal-And-Replace failure, and should be viewed as expanding.

Nonetheless, the strengthening of the industrial side (to near-consumption side acceleration) may mean the January 28th pause is over,
and we are re-emerging back into the "Buy-American" phase that we saw from the November Elections through January 28th. If so, world
economic markets are to again take warning.

............................................................Industrial...........Personal
..........................................................Production......Consumption
...................................10/29/16.............138.0.................227.5
...................................11/05/16.............139.2.................226.0
...................................11/12/16.............139.6.................222.6.....Trump election known by morning of 11/09/16
...................................11/19/16.............140.6.................221.9
...................................11/26/16.............141.9.................222.2
...................................12/03/16.............141.3.................229.6
...................................12/10/16.............141.7.................220.6
...................................12/17/16.............142.3.................220.5
...................................12/24/16.............142.6.................221.4
...................................12/31/16.............143.1.................217.5
...................................01/07/17.............144.4.................215.9
...................................01/14/17.............144.6.................213.8
...................................01/21/17.............144.8.................212.5
...................................01/28/17.............145.4.................216.7
...................................02/04/17.............144.9.................215.2
...................................02/11/17.............144.3.................214.3
...................................02/18/17.............143.6.................212.5
...................................02/25/17.............142.6.................212.1
...................................03/04/17.............141.7.................213.6
...................................03/11/17.............141.3.................214.4
...................................03/18/17.............141.5.................218.1
...................................03/25/17.............142.3.................219.9
...................................04/01/17.............143.1.................221.2
...................................04/08/17.............144.4.................223.7
...................................04/15/17.............144.2.................222.8

GLOBAL ECONOMICS: For world Markets... the implied switch toward US industrial production that is evidenced in the gas flows through
January 28th, and now trying to resume, implies a switch away from foreign industrial production, and I assume the worlds non-US economies
to be pressured prior to January 28th, and again since about March 22nd as it is trying to become a little more trendy in the US to buy "Made-
in-the-US" products than to purchase imported goods.

Should the Trump administration push forward on its campaign of trade balancing (and it may be doing so all along beneath the surface as
Trump loves to make phone calls) nations with large trade-surpluses into the US will see those trade flows pressured. As this progresses,
global recession or worse (should US trade-demand abate) endangers those foreign economies, and that part of their manufacturing base
that is not represented by internal demand will be at great risk.

In a Trump world (and post-Trump world) the continual practice of dumping product into the US in return for US liquidity infusions to foreign
central-reserve banks is at some point going to fail. If Trump (or a successor) does not fix it, the markets will eventually fix it themselves,
and in a way none will like. Rising US debt is building a global bubble.

The answer (for foreign nations that are addicted to export in exchange for cash) is to self-stimulate their own economies, to allow their own
citizens to afford to purchase the works of their own hands.

US cash (in a central bank) is no alternative for gold, and no alternative for diversification. If the US dollar collapses (due to uncontrolled
debt accumulation breaking global US dollar confidence) the risk to central banks that have accumulated great hordes of US dollars will be
as substantial to those foreign nations as the risks to the US itself.

NATGAS: Last weeks EIA report (10 BCF injection) closes out withdrawal season and marks the week ending April 24th as being the weekly
low for 2017. Baseline for that 10 BCF injection was 43, scoring the EIA's number as 33 BCF to-the-bullish.

This weeks projection (57 BCF injected) comes on milder weather than the week before, which raised the Baseline to 67 BCF, scoring the
estimate as 10 BCF to-the-bullish on the first of the two Easter-softened weeks.

In past years surrounding switchover, we often see less of both withdrawals and (once past switch-over) injections than the gas-flows would
suggest, presumably because linepack is used rather than withdrawing one day only to inject the next (waste of compressor fuel). Given that,
a higher margin of error should be assumed this week's Thursday report.

Next weeks projection (54 BCF injected so far) points to a bigger injection next week.

......=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
.........Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
......_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
......03/24/17.....-6.3....-6.7.....-4.7.....-3.1.....-6.7..-10.9.....-4.6.....-42.0.........-69........-45.........-43...........-16..............-420........250.......-346........-19
......03/31/17.....-0.2......2.6......1.4......0.2....-0.1.....-0.9.....-1.0........2.0.........-12............0............2............31.............-424........268.......-352...........-5
......04/07/17.....-1.8......2.5......3.6......2.8......2.3......1.3....-0.7......10.0............5............5..........10............43..............-419........262.......-343...........-9
......04/14/17......2.7......7.9....11.5......9.5......9.2......7.5......8.8......57.2..........49..........57..........................67..............-360........283......-285............1
......04/21/17....11.3....12.5i...12.4i.....7.1i......6.2i.....1.9i.....2.1i.....53.5i..........52i.........54i...........................................-360........291.......-278i.........15i

DAILY GLOBAL WARMING MODEL: The climate models can change on a dime, and global cooling showed up and did that for us the last seven
days and all of a sudden we go from an over-100,000-square-mile deficit (to last year) to a small surplus. Chances of a hotter-than-last-year go to
50-50. Way, way too early to say anything for sure about summer heat though at this point.

We also note that global warming is still slimy hanging on in all of the five other models.

The presence of sea-ice (along with snow-pack and icecap) in the summer acts as a heat-sink, with the melting ice dissipating the heat build-up that
would otherwise occur as the result of sunlight relentlessly striking the sun-ward-poll during summer. My own stance is that it is the surface of frozen
water (square miles) and not the volume (cubic miles) that matters, as it is the exposed part of frozen inventory (as it melts in the sunlight and heated
air) that dissipates heat.

Thus, should frozen inventory (in square miles) be five percent less than the prior year, the ability of that hemisphere to dissipate heat is lessened
proportionately to that five percent deficit, allowing more hemispheric heat to go undissipated to feed a hot summer.

That effect is of course reversed (though parallel) in winter as open seawater releases heat upon freezing, which mitigates the coldness of winter.

In my own mind, I question whether this is the basis of ice ages... whether periods of glaciation expanse are more a product of a loss of open water
(rather than severely colder winters) which impedes mitigation of heat loss in winter. At least, it fits better with the modeling. Of course if that opinion
is right... if a hemisphere should loose all of its ice at any time before summer, than that hemisphere becomes a hell-on-earth in summer where
temperatures could go above the boiling point to find the next point where summer heat can be massively mitigated. A very radical view indeed.

..............................========================================Estimate of Changes to Global Sea Ice Inventories (Square Miles)=========================================
..............................------------------------------------Northern Hemisphere------------------------------------................-------------------------------------Southern Hemisphere------------------------------------
......................................................................................................................Net Effect Of.........................................................................................................................Net Effect
..............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------....................................Hemispheric...............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------.....................................Hemispheric
...................................Two............One...............................Net.........................Cooling.......30-Day.......................Two...........One................................Net.........................Cooling........30-Day
......____________Years Ago_ Year Ago__Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__Average________Years Ago_ Year Ago__ Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__ Average
......04/10/17............3126690....3189115....3076551.......-16779.........-9135........-7643...........-142...................1856794....1413910....1291013........32718........21641........11077.........-1822
......04/11/17............3118872....3126258....3078262..........1711.........-9492........11203............269...................1876833....1545733....1315516........24502........21887..........2615.........-1782
......04/12/17............3106402....3097856....3065266.......-12996.........-9734........-3261............301...................1899785....1646286....1331728........16212........22109.........-5897.........-1765
......04/13/17............3097279....3099803....3050613.......-14653.........-9788........-4864...........-182...................1923581....1658363....1346124........14395........22408.........-8013.........-1771
......04/14/17............3092567....3066336....3043654.........-6959.........-9843..........2884............167...................1950994....1720180....1372308........26184........22593..........3590........-1362
......04/15/17............3086959....3056825....3038142.........-5511.........-9685..........4173..........1162...................1987631....1759228....1396651........24343........22479..........1863........-1230
......04/16/17............3080130....3046916....3034702.........-3440.........-9369..........5929..........1693...................2022118....1780959....1412963........16312........22163........-5851.........-1321
......04/17/17............3081081....3038112....3030849.........-3853.........-9011..........5158..........2177...................2049812....1806767....1435163........22200........21926............273........-1084

......Minimum............................(09/11/12).....928478............................................................................................................(03/03/11)....764252
......Maximum...........................(02/25/98)...3585826............................................................................................................(09/20/14)..4334299

I have also been posting over the last couple months on the possibility of sea-ice shelf breakup, and that probably comes from the "Larson C" ice shelf
which has reported cracking of more than 100 miles in length now, traversing its ~1150 foot thickness. I saw a report today that 12 KM remains in the
path of the cracking and looking at the contrasts in satellite images it looks to me that that separation might already be complete. Ice reformation is
already starting nearer to the pole though so if it doesn't separate soon it could conceivably stay until 2018. We shall see.

Today's refining numbers...

...................................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling
...............Weeklies......Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)
...............12/27/13............451...............06/27/14............397...............12/26/14............444...............06/26/15............376...............12/25/15............459...............06/24/16............384...............12/23/16............461
...............01/03/14............447...............07/04/14............394...............01/02/15............448...............07/03/15............382...............01/01/16............450...............07/01/16............389...............12/30/16............459
...............01/10/14............429...............07/11/14............403...............01/09/15............431...............07/10/15............399...............01/08/16............438...............07/08/16............394...............01/06/17............457
...............01/17/14............441...............07/18/14............382...............01/16/15............428...............07/17/15............405...............01/15/16............437...............07/15/16............411...............01/13/17............454
...............01/24/14............420...............07/25/14............379...............01/23/15............419...............07/24/15............399...............01/22/16............441...............07/22/16............411...............01/20/17............461
...............01/31/14............392...............08/01/14............438...............01/30/15............415...............07/31/15............398...............01/29/16............424...............07/29/16............417...............01/27/17............460
...............02/07/14............411...............08/08/14............419...............02/06/15............425...............08/07/15............395...............02/05/16............437...............08/05/16............409...............02/03/17............437
...............02/14/14............419...............08/15/14............412...............02/13/15............435...............08/14/15............390...............02/12/16............458...............08/12/16............405...............02/10/17............463
...............02/21/14............442...............08/22/14............381...............02/20/15............420...............08/21/15............373...............02/19/16............441...............08/19/16............401...............02/17/17............477
...............02/28/14............410...............08/29/14............384...............02/27/15............428...............08/28/15............384...............02/26/16............468...............08/26/16............417...............02/24/17............458
...............03/07/14............438...............09/05/14............395...............03/06/15............446...............09/04/15............394...............03/04/16............467...............09/02/16............426...............03/03/17............415
...............03/14/14............431...............09/12/14............387...............03/13/15............447...............09/11/15............413...............03/11/16............449...............09/09/16............414...............03/10/17............424
...............03/21/14............452...............09/19/14............390...............03/20/15............445...............09/18/15............402...............03/18/16............447...............09/16/16............406...............03/17/17............459
...............03/28/14............452...............09/26/14............380...............03/27/15............435...............09/25/15............379...............03/25/16............440...............09/23/16............418...............03/24/17............438
...............04/04/14............431...............10/03/14............382...............04/03/15............453...............10/02/15............386...............04/01/16............439...............09/30/16............419...............03/31/17............441
...............04/11/14............426...............10/10/14............385...............04/10/15............467...............10/09/15............390...............04/08/16............366...............10/07/16............432...............04/07/17............458
...............04/18/14............458...............10/17/14............387...............04/17/15............448...............10/16/15............395...............04/15/16............397...............10/14/16............446...............04/14/17............415
...............04/25/14............420...............10/24/14............380...............04/24/15............442...............10/23/15............406...............04/22/16............374...............10/21/16............418...............04/21/17............394i
...............05/02/14............383...............10/31/14............426...............05/01/15............428...............10/30/15............428...............04/29/16............413...............10/28/16............400
...............05/09/14............397...............11/07/14............354...............05/08/15............404...............11/06/15............424...............05/06/16............416...............11/04/16............431
...............05/16/14............404...............11/14/14............416...............05/15/15............411...............11/13/15............452...............05/13/16............420...............11/11/16............444
...............05/23/14............415...............11/21/14............456...............05/22/15............426...............11/20/15............467...............05/20/16............424...............11/18/16............464
...............05/30/14............405...............11/28/14............463...............05/29/15............406...............11/27/15............465...............05/27/16............411...............11/25/16............472
...............06/06/14............400...............12/05/14............446...............06/05/15............402...............12/04/15............459...............06/03/16............400...............12/02/16............469
...............06/13/14............399...............12/12/14............426...............06/12/15............409...............12/11/15............446...............06/10/16............399...............12/09/16............456
...............06/20/14............401...............12/19/14............439...............06/19/15............379...............12/18/15............455...............06/17/16............383...............12/16/16............473

...................................Scheduling....Weeks
................Dailies......... (MMCF).........Avg
...............03/18/17.(w)......450
...............03/19/17.(w)......444
...............03/20/17............444
...............03/21/17............422
...............03/22/17............435
...............03/23/17............441
...............03/24/17............428.............438

...............03/25/17.(w)......425
...............03/26/17.(w)......426
...............03/27/17............426
...............03/28/17............453
...............03/29/17............438
...............03/30/17............452
...............03/31/17............468.............441

...............04/01/17.(w)......467
...............04/02/17.(w)......468
...............04/03/17............459
...............04/04/17............460
...............04/05/17............444
...............04/06/17............449
...............04/07/17............462.............458

...............04/08/17.(w)......385
...............04/09/17.(w)......380
...............04/10/17............380
...............04/11/17............445
...............04/12/17............456
...............04/13/17............453
...............04/14/17............403.............415

...............04/15/17.(w)......394i
...............04/16/17.(w)......393i
...............04/17/17............367i
...............04/18/17............423i............394i
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)