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Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MODELING NOTE: Several models remain down due to personal family issues (over the past couple years) that previously
crimped back on my work. Though improving, I remain somewhat time constrained on both posting and modeling updates.
I normally have a small backlog of modeling updates, but that backlog swelled and while being worked through now, it still is
at a point where some modeling (including industrial-side economics and especially natgas production) is hampered by the
backlog.

This has only a very minor impact on natgas storage modeling, and in no way impacts climate modeling, or degree/day modeling,
It does affect natgas production modeling the greatest, so that model is especially flagged as such in its "Part 6" post. The
Generation Model also looks to be underestimating.

MICRO-ECONOMICS: Quite a change from last week as we emerged from choppiness last week to an extremely pronounced
teeter-totter mode that once again has a political slant to it.

On the Industrial-Index, factory-output is on a bullish tear, up 11 days in a row to a record 145.9 as of Tuesday's read. That takes
out the old record (145.4) from January 28th earlier this year.

Conversely, the consumption index continues its drop since its April 8th mini-peak, from 223.7 to 208.0 today.

Interestingly, food-group scheduling (in spite of the bearishness in consumption) is running bullishly toward consumer sentiment
(in opposition to the bearishness in the consumption index) suggesting that in no way is there psychological trouble and, in fact,
the economy (in terms of equities and corporate earnings) is in a very short-term period of explosive growth in productivity.

If that is true (exploding productivity), and if that persists, it could lead to a rapid upward-spiral of economic growth unseen for
a long, long time.

Keep in mind though we are only talking micro-economics (just 11 days in this case) and an economic boom does not 11 days make.
111 days - you better believe! But not 11 days

..............................................................--28.week.avg---.........---Daily.(Raw)---.........Daily
...........................................................Industrial..Personal.....Industrial..Personal.......Food
.....................................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n.........Prod'n.....Cons'n.......Group
...................................04/16/17.............144.1........222.2...........2.249.......47.93........66048......Easter Sunday
...................................04/17/17.............144.0........221.6...........2.222.......47.93........64288
...................................04/18/17.............143.9........221.5...........2.205.......48.69........65165
...................................04/19/17.............143.8........221.8...........2.211.......50.01........64675
...................................04/20/17.............143.9........221.8...........2.306.......50.01........65372
...................................04/21/17.............143.9........220.9...........2.304.......42.88........64859
...................................04/22/17.............143.8........219.5...........2.259.......39.44........62593
...................................04/23/17.............143.9........218.0...........2.277.......39.44........61612......Post-Easter Sunday
...................................04/24/17.............144.0........216.4...........2.234.......37.30........61144......Easter Season Ended
...................................04/25/17.............144.1........214.8...........2.295.......37.88........63022
...................................04/26/17.............144.2........213.5...........2.276.......41.98........63305
...................................04/27/17.............144.4........212.8...........2.288.......44.29........66624
...................................04/28/17.............144.3........211.9...........2.233.......43.38........60873
...................................04/29/17.............144.3........211.4...........2.271.......43.38........61217
...................................04/30/17.............144.2........211.2...........2.272.......46.94........59584
...................................05/01/17.............144.0........210.7...........2.279.......45.29........57494
...................................05/02/17.............143.9........210.5...........2.218.......48.06........58875
...................................05/03/17.............143.8........210.8...........2.242r......52.14........58976
...................................05/04/17.............143.8........211.1...........2.328r......50.10........59163......House of Reps passes healthcare reform
...................................05/05/17.............143.8........210.8...........2.320r......46.78........59178
...................................05/06/17.............144.0........210.5...........2.336.......44.98........59140
...................................05/07/17.............144.2........210.1...........2.320.......44.98........59543
...................................05/08/17.............144.5........209.8...........2.320.......44.98........57626
...................................05/09/17.............144.7........209.6...........2.279.......45.36........61888
...................................05/10/17.............144.8........209.7...........2.317.......48.71........61879
...................................05/11/17.............144.9........209.2...........2.325.......44.82........59536
...................................05/12/17.............145.0........209.0...........2.306i......45.14i.......58880i
...................................05/13/17.............145.2........208.8...........2.302i......45.13i.......58667i
...................................05/14/17.............145.4........208.5...........2.312i......45.13i.......59703i
...................................05/15/17.............145.6........208.3...........2.288i......45.13i.......57651i
...................................05/16/17.............145.9i.......208.0i..........2.318i......46.21i.......58246i

MACRO-ECONOMICS: In the bigger picture, we remain in the midst of an economic sea-change, brought about by the election of Donald
Trump. Immediately following the November Elections, Optimism was brought to the industrial and investment sides of the economy. For
the consumption side however, the economy has been pressured by the political side (consumption tends to be more sympathetic towards
Democrats while industry and investment tend to be more sympathetic towards Republicans).

Secondly, the Federal Reserve has begun what looks to be a quarterly program to raise interest rates, with the first round in December and
the second round recently announced for March.

Industrial Production, traditionally more sensitive to the Republican side, understandably rallied in response to the Trump win, and has
been overall firm with only a short pause in February and early-March.

Personal Consumption, traditionally more sensitive to the Democratic side, understandably has been choppy and soft in response to the
trump win. Historically, the consumption side leads the industrial side, so I tend to put more emphasis on consumption (and its divergence
to industrial production) than on industrial production.

Politically, personal consumption is very much swayed by what happens in government and government debate, so we have to watch (and
anticipate for) what happens in Washington (and how it reverberates in the press). For instance, government-shutdown talk in Washington
historically matches well with plunging personal consumption... but only when it reverberates in the press. I will go so far as to say that at
present what happens in politics and press is more important for the economy right now than most anything else.

Hot buttons for the economy are overseas-conflict talk, healthcare-reform talk, and tax-reform talk. Consumers are very sensitive to
commodity-price swings which could be brought about by such issues, the financial insecurities of the present healthcare-cost structures,
after-tax consequences of tax-reforms, and other issues that may affect the spendable portion of their incomes.

............................................................Industrial...........Personal
..........................................................Production......Consumption
...................................11/19/16.............140.6.................221.9
...................................11/26/16.............141.9.................222.2
...................................12/03/16.............141.3.................229.6
...................................12/10/16.............141.7.................220.6
...................................12/17/16.............142.3.................220.5
...................................12/24/16.............142.6.................221.4
...................................12/31/16.............143.1.................217.5
...................................01/07/17.............144.4.................215.9
...................................01/14/17.............144.6.................213.8
...................................01/21/17.............144.8.................212.5
...................................01/28/17.............145.4.................216.7
...................................02/04/17.............144.9.................215.2
...................................02/11/17.............144.3.................214.3
...................................02/18/17.............143.6.................212.5
...................................02/25/17.............142.6.................212.1
...................................03/04/17.............141.7.................213.6
...................................03/11/17.............141.3.................214.4
...................................03/18/17.............141.5.................218.1
...................................03/25/17.............142.3.................219.9
...................................04/01/17.............143.1.................221.2
...................................04/08/17.............144.4.................223.7
...................................04/15/17.............144.2.................222.8
...................................04/22/17.............143.8.................219.5
...................................04/29/17.............144.3.................211.4
...................................05/06/17.............144.0.................210.5
...................................05/13/17.............145.2.................208.8

GLOBAL ECONOMICS: For world Markets... the implied switch toward US industrial production that is evidenced in the gas flows since the
Trump election (with only a pause in February and early-March) implies a switch away from foreign industrial production, and I assume the
worlds non-US economies to be pressured, as in the US it is trying to become a little more trendy buy "Made-in-the-US" products rather than
to purchase imported goods.

As the Trump administration pushes forward on its campaign of trade balancing nations with large trade-surpluses into the US will see those
trade flows pressured. As this progresses, global recession or worse (should US trade-demand abate) endangers those foreign economies,
and that part of their manufacturing base that is not represented by internal demand will be at great risk.

In a Trump world (and post-Trump world) the continual practice of dumping product into the US (in return for US liquidity infusions to foreign
central-reserve banks) is at some point going to fail. If Trump (or a successor) does not fix it, the markets will eventually fix it themselves,
and in a way none will like. Rising US debt is building a global bubble.

The answer (for foreign nations that are addicted to export in exchange for cash) is to self-stimulate their own economies, to allow their own
citizens to afford to purchase the works of their own hands.

US cash (in a central bank) is no alternative for gold, and no alternative for diversification. If the US dollar collapses (due to uncontrolled
debt accumulation breaking global US dollar confidence) the risk to central banks that have accumulated great hordes of US dollars will be
as substantial to those foreign nations as the risks to the US itself.

NATGAS: Last week the EIA gave us a 45 BCF injection, on a week only a little more suggestive of injection than the prior weeks 67 BCF add.
Baseline for the report was for a 74 BCF injection, scoring the report 29 BCF to-the-bullish.

This weeks projection (57 BCF injected) gets a little artificial help from the salt-skew, though with a 79 BCF baseline still projects as 22 BCF
to the bullish.

Next weeks projection (42 BCF injected so far) points to a bigger injection next week (we have more counting to go) but baseline scores on the
dailies are in the stratasphere already due to favorable salt-skews and likely short-term economic expansion.

......=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
.........Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
......_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
......04/21/17....12.1....13.3....12.4......9.3......9.3......9.1......8.4......74.0..........72..........82..........74............92..............-356........294......-274..........13
......04/28/17......7.7......9.0......9.9....10.8....10.5......9.7......9.4......67.0..........63..........66..........67............78..............-361........301......-280..........16
......05/05/17......6.6......6.5......6.9......5.8......6.0......6.3......7.0......45.0..........56..........39..........45............74..............-369........274......-275...........-5
......05/12/17......8.4......9.2......8.4......7.3......7.7......7.2......8.6......56.8..........71..........57..........................79..............-384........241......-283.........-27
......05/19/17......8.6......9.6i.....8.9i.....6.4i......6.4i.....1.0i.....1.1i.....42.0i..........41i.........42i...........................................-394........218.......-289i........-49i

DAILY GLOBAL WARMING MODEL: Continuing on that "The climate models can change on a dime, and global cooling showed up..." talk of my
posts over the last four weeks, global cooling pervades all 6 models, including the two all-important sea-ice models which reflect the polls of the earth.

All three northern-hemisphere models now count surpluses (in snow and ice) to the last couple of years, taking the odds slightly towards a cooler
summer as we approach July.

The presence of sea-ice (along with snow-pack and icecap) in the summer acts as a heat-sink, with the melting ice dissipating the heat build-up that
would otherwise occur as the result of sunlight relentlessly striking the sun-ward-poll during summer. My own stance is that it is the surface of frozen
water (square miles) and not the volume (cubic miles) that matters, as it is the exposed part of frozen inventory (as it melts in the sunlight and heated
air) that dissipates heat.

Thus, should frozen inventory (in square miles) be five percent less than the prior year, the ability of that hemisphere to dissipate heat is assumed to
be lessened five percent as well, allowing more hemispheric heat to go undissipated to feed a hot summer.

That effect is of course reversed (though parallel) in winter as open seawater releases heat upon freezing, which mitigates the coldness of winter.

In my own mind, I question whether this is the basis of ice ages... whether periods of glaciation expanse are more a product of a loss of open water
(rather than severely colder winters) which impedes mitigation of heat loss in winter. At least, it fits better with the modeling. Of course if that opinion
is right... if a hemisphere should loose all of its ice at any time before summer, than that hemisphere becomes a hell-on-earth in summer where
temperatures could go above the boiling point to find the next point where summer heat can be massively mitigated, or the thickening of the atmosphere
to the point that more sunlight can be reflected back into space to mitigate summer heat. Mine is a very radical view.

..............................========================================Estimate of Changes to Global Sea Ice Inventories (Square Miles)=========================================
..............................------------------------------------Northern Hemisphere------------------------------------................-------------------------------------Southern Hemisphere------------------------------------
......................................................................................................................Net Effect Of.........................................................................................................................Net Effect
..............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------....................................Hemispheric...............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------.....................................Hemispheric
...................................Two............One...............................Net.........................Cooling.......30-Day.......................Two...........One................................Net.........................Cooling........30-Day
......____________Years Ago_ Year Ago__Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__Average________Years Ago_ Year Ago__ Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__ Average
......05/08/17............2828176....2766734....2856853.........-6717.......-12182..........5465..........1990...................2536676....2187271....1937716........26806........24118..........2688..........1459
......05/09/17............2812393....2726848....2856414...........-439.......-12727........12288..........2153...................2554168....2214743....1960012........22296........24386........-2090..........1340
......05/10/17............2803643....2705482....2843343.......-13070.......-12851..........-219..........2401...................2567681....2225545....1988078........28066........24161..........3904..........1100
......05/11/17............2787773....2690492....2831370.......-11972.......-12554............581..........2046...................2575074....2231732....2018584........30506........23364..........7141..........1251
......05/12/17............2773483....2668161....2818762.......-12608.......-12184..........-424..........2141...................2589212....2244957....2039532........20948........22306.........-1358..........1402
......05/13/17............2761683....2655186....2809552.........-9209.......-11697..........2487..........2386...................2612407....2263978....2072721........33188........21360........11828..........2063
......05/14/17............2744787....2635374....2800344.........-9208.......-11386..........2178..........2363...................2635770....2291437....2105926........33204........20901........12303..........2354

......Minimum............................(09/11/12).....928478............................................................................................................(03/03/11)....764252
......Maximum...........................(02/25/98)...3585826............................................................................................................(09/20/14)..4334299

I have also been posting over the last few months on the possibility of sea-ice shelf breakup, and that may come from the "Larson C" ice shelf, which has
reportedly cracked more than 100 miles in length now, traversing its ~1150 foot thickness. 12 KM remains in the path of the cracking and looking at the
contrasts in satellite images it looks to me that that separation might already be complete. Ice reformation has already began, however, and since the 2017
minimum we have added nearly 1.5 million square miles of sea ice to the southern hemisphere. So the separation may well not happen until 2018.

Today's refining numbers...

...................................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling
...............Weeklies......Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)
...............12/27/13............451...............06/27/14............397...............12/26/14............444...............06/26/15............376...............12/25/15............459...............06/24/16............384...............12/23/16............461
...............01/03/14............447...............07/04/14............394...............01/02/15............448...............07/03/15............382...............01/01/16............450...............07/01/16............389...............12/30/16............459
...............01/10/14............429...............07/11/14............403...............01/09/15............431...............07/10/15............399...............01/08/16............438...............07/08/16............394...............01/06/17............457
...............01/17/14............441...............07/18/14............382...............01/16/15............428...............07/17/15............405...............01/15/16............437...............07/15/16............411...............01/13/17............454
...............01/24/14............420...............07/25/14............379...............01/23/15............419...............07/24/15............399...............01/22/16............441...............07/22/16............411...............01/20/17............461
...............01/31/14............392...............08/01/14............438...............01/30/15............415...............07/31/15............398...............01/29/16............424...............07/29/16............417...............01/27/17............460
...............02/07/14............411...............08/08/14............419...............02/06/15............425...............08/07/15............395...............02/05/16............437...............08/05/16............409...............02/03/17............437
...............02/14/14............419...............08/15/14............412...............02/13/15............435...............08/14/15............390...............02/12/16............458...............08/12/16............405...............02/10/17............463
...............02/21/14............442...............08/22/14............381...............02/20/15............420...............08/21/15............373...............02/19/16............441...............08/19/16............401...............02/17/17............477
...............02/28/14............410...............08/29/14............384...............02/27/15............428...............08/28/15............384...............02/26/16............468...............08/26/16............417...............02/24/17............458
...............03/07/14............438...............09/05/14............395...............03/06/15............446...............09/04/15............394...............03/04/16............467...............09/02/16............426...............03/03/17............415
...............03/14/14............431...............09/12/14............387...............03/13/15............447...............09/11/15............413...............03/11/16............449...............09/09/16............414...............03/10/17............424
...............03/21/14............452...............09/19/14............390...............03/20/15............445...............09/18/15............402...............03/18/16............447...............09/16/16............406...............03/17/17............459
...............03/28/14............452...............09/26/14............380...............03/27/15............435...............09/25/15............379...............03/25/16............440...............09/23/16............418...............03/24/17............438
...............04/04/14............431...............10/03/14............382...............04/03/15............453...............10/02/15............386...............04/01/16............439...............09/30/16............419...............03/31/17............441
...............04/11/14............426...............10/10/14............385...............04/10/15............467...............10/09/15............390...............04/08/16............366...............10/07/16............432...............04/07/17............458
...............04/18/14............458...............10/17/14............387...............04/17/15............448...............10/16/15............395...............04/15/16............397...............10/14/16............446...............04/14/17............415
...............04/25/14............420...............10/24/14............380...............04/24/15............442...............10/23/15............406...............04/22/16............374...............10/21/16............418...............04/21/17............400
...............05/02/14............383...............10/31/14............426...............05/01/15............428...............10/30/15............428...............04/29/16............413...............10/28/16............400...............04/28/17............428
...............05/09/14............397...............11/07/14............354...............05/08/15............404...............11/06/15............424...............05/06/16............416...............11/04/16............431...............05/05/17............413r
...............05/16/14............404...............11/14/14............416...............05/15/15............411...............11/13/15............452...............05/13/16............420...............11/11/16............444...............05/12/17............430i
...............05/23/14............415...............11/21/14............456...............05/22/15............426...............11/20/15............467...............05/20/16............424...............11/18/16............464...............05/19/17............445i
...............05/30/14............405...............11/28/14............463...............05/29/15............406...............11/27/15............465...............05/27/16............411...............11/25/16............472
...............06/06/14............400...............12/05/14............446...............06/05/15............402...............12/04/15............459...............06/03/16............400...............12/02/16............469
...............06/13/14............399...............12/12/14............426...............06/12/15............409...............12/11/15............446...............06/10/16............399...............12/09/16............456
...............06/20/14............401...............12/19/14............439...............06/19/15............379...............12/18/15............455...............06/17/16............383...............12/16/16............473

...................................Scheduling....Weeks
................Dailies......... (MMCF).........Avg
...............04/15/17.(w)......393
...............04/16/17.(w)......394
...............04/17/17............375
...............04/18/17............373
...............04/19/17............378
...............04/20/17............437
...............04/21/17............447.............400

...............04/22/17.(w)......441
...............04/23/17.(w)......453
...............04/24/17............432
...............04/25/17............424
...............04/26/17............421
...............04/27/17............450
...............04/28/17............378.............428

...............04/29/17.(w)......384
...............04/30/17.(w)......394
...............05/01/17............436
...............05/02/17............421
...............05/03/17............357r
...............05/04/17............446r
...............05/05/17............450r............413r

...............05/06/17.(w)......451
...............05/07/17.(w)......453
...............05/08/17............448
...............05/09/17............407
...............05/10/17............396
...............05/11/17............417
...............05/12/17............437i............430i

...............05/13/17.(w)......446i
...............05/14/17.(w)......449i
...............05/15/17............439i............445i
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)