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Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*** 08/22/17 REVISIONS- LNG model audit ("Part 6" posts) increased the "LNG.Imports.(Exports)" category slightly on intermittent dates
from 01/01/2010 through 05/05/17.

Several models remain down due to personal family issues (over the past couple years) that previously crimped back on my work. Though
improving, I remain somewhat time constrained on both posting and modeling updates. I normally have a small backlog of modeling updates,
but that backlog swelled and while being worked through now, it still is at a point where some modeling (including industrial-side economics
and especially natgas production) is hampered by the backlog.

This has only a very minor impact on natgas storage modeling, and in no way impacts climate modeling, or degree/day modeling, It does
affect natgas production modeling the greatest, so that model is especially flagged as such in its "Part 6" post. The Generation Model also
looks to be underestimating.

HURRICANES HARVEY & IRMA are very much messing with the gas flows in the past week. Refinery, fractionation, and generation outages
have cut demand and pumped injections, as well as skewed baseline scores and slightly restricted industrial use (including fractionation and
refining). This will probably continue into next week.

We were very fortunate on Irma that the hurricane was able to interact with Cuba, then cut up through the interior of Florida... both took strength
out of the storm and kept it from being the monster that it could have been. Five days before Irma made landfall NOAA had modeling indicating
a "Potential Maximum Sustained Windspeed" of 210 MPH between Cuba and the Keys. Had it missed Cuba and cut up just offshore on either
coast, given the lack of evacuations, would have scrubbed bare any ground containing anything but concrete buildings and killed vast numbers.

A COMMENT ON HURRICANE PHYSICS... the strength of a hurricane is not lineal to windspeed, but is relative to the cube of the hurricanes
sustained winds. Thus a 150 MPH hurricane carries eight times the wind-energy of a "Minimal" (Category 1) hurricane. Irma was as high
as 185 MPH when the NOAA models were playing with 210 MPH maxes. A 210 MPH hurricane would have carried more than 22 times the
energy of a Cat-1 75 MPH hurricane, and generated a 30 foot storm surge. That is the monster that one day we will have to worry about,
which fortunately Irma (and Harvey) were not.

MICRO-ECONOMICS: Teeter-totter mode to start the week gave way to a two-day tandem up-move in the latest datapoint. Food-group
scheduling remains supportive.

The industrial index rose from 142.7 last week to 144.9 in its latest read. It now sports a 16-day uptrend.

The consumption index overall slipped from 218.3 to 218.1 in this weeks latest datapoint. It remains far below its 237.1 all-time high of
August 13th, 2015.

While this weeks numbers are supportive, keep in mind that we are looking only at the very-short term here in an economy that can
change on one news report or one political speech.

..............................................................--28.week.avg---.........---Daily.(Raw)---.........Daily
...........................................................Industrial..Personal.....Industrial..Personal.......Food
.....................................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n.........Prod'n.....Cons'n.......Group
...................................08/13/17.............142.5........214.7...........2.131.......48.39........53012
...................................08/14/17.............142.2........214.8...........2.120.......47.39........51819
...................................08/15/17.............142.1........214.8...........2.119.......47.08........51307
...................................08/16/17.............141.9........214.5...........2.099.......44.77........53851
...................................08/17/17.............141.8........214.6...........2.122.......46.03........52913
...................................08/18/17.............141.6........214.8...........2.098.......45.27........53738
...................................08/19/17.............141.5........215.7...........2.135.......47.81........51376
...................................08/20/17.............141.2........216.4...........2.134.......45.81........51806
...................................08/21/17.............141.0........217.1...........2.113.......45.81........51838
...................................08/22/17.............141.0........217.1...........2.140.......41.52........51172
...................................08/23/17.............141.0........217.6...........2.141.......44.24........52019
...................................08/24/17.............141.0........218.3...........2.177.......44.43........52507
...................................08/25/17.............140.9........218.8...........2.151.......44.29........52978
...................................08/26/17.............140.8........218.9...........2.152.......42.91........50137
...................................08/27/17.............140.8........219.0...........2.152.......42.91........52124
...................................08/28/17.............140.6........219.2...........2.144.......42.91........51889
...................................08/29/17.............140.7........219.2...........2.226.......44.05........58644
...................................08/30/17.............140.7........219.3...........2.226.......47.05........57863
...................................08/31/17.............140.9........219.3...........2.277.......47.00........55932
...................................09/01/17.............141.0........219.3...........2.266r......47.01........53835
...................................09/02/17.............141.3........219.3...........2.288r......46.97........51470
...................................09/03/17.............141.6........219.0...........2.295.......46.97........52326
...................................09/04/17.............141.9........219.0...........2.298.......46.97........52442
...................................09/05/17.............142.3........218.6...........2.290.......46.97........50911
...................................09/06/17.............142.6........218.3...........2.278.......47.00........53357
...................................09/07/17.............143.0........218.2...........2.291.......46.35........53934
...................................09/08/17.............143.4........218.1...........2.311i......46.35i.......53595i
...................................09/09/17.............143.9........218.0...........2.319i......46.38i.......50868i
...................................09/10/17.............144.3........217.8...........2.293i......46.38i.......52474i
...................................09/11/17.............144.6........217.9...........2.244i......46.38i.......49473i
...................................09/12/17.............144.9i.......218.1i..........2.252i......46.97i.......53920i

MACRO-ECONOMICS: Earlier In the intermediate term, we were embroiled in an economic sea-change brought about by the election of
President Trump. Immediately following the November Elections, Optimism was brought to the industrial and investment sides of the
economy. For the consumption side however, the economy was initially pressured by the political side (consumption tends to be more
sympathetic towards Democrats while industry and investment tend to be more sympathetic towards Republicans).

............................................................Industrial...........Personal
..........................................................Production......Consumption
...................................11/05/16.............139.2.................226.0
...................................11/12/16.............139.6.................222.6
...................................11/19/16.............140.6.................221.9
...................................11/26/16.............141.9.................222.2
...................................12/03/16.............141.3.................229.6
...................................12/10/16.............141.7.................220.6
...................................12/17/16.............142.3.................220.5
...................................12/24/16.............142.6.................221.4
...................................12/31/16.............143.1.................217.5
...................................01/07/17.............144.4.................215.9
...................................01/14/17.............144.6.................213.8
...................................01/21/17.............144.8.................212.5
...................................01/28/17.............145.4.................216.7
...................................02/04/17.............144.9.................215.2
...................................02/11/17.............144.3.................214.3
...................................02/18/17.............143.6.................212.5
...................................02/25/17.............142.6.................212.1
...................................03/04/17.............141.7.................213.6
...................................03/11/17.............141.3.................214.4
...................................03/18/17.............141.5.................218.1
...................................03/25/17.............142.3.................219.9
...................................04/01/17.............143.1.................221.2
...................................04/08/17.............144.4.................223.7
...................................04/15/17.............144.2.................222.8
...................................04/22/17.............143.8.................219.5
...................................04/29/17.............144.3.................211.4
...................................05/06/17.............144.0.................210.5
...................................05/13/17.............145.2.................208.8
...................................05/20/17.............146.5.................213.5
...................................05/27/17.............146.6.................217.1
...................................06/03/17.............146.8.................217.5

Ultimately, the industrial side peaked June 3rd (at 146.8) while the consumption side had slid (to 217.5). Since then, the industrial side slid
to 140.7 (on August 26th's weekly) but reports of overall factory strength in August combined with strongly-bullish baseline scores on natgas
suggests that the above weakness was not real, but a mirage created by a shift from rural to urban manufacturing.

Since the (suspect) August 26th low, strength resumed pouring into the industrial sampling and I assume the US manufacturing boom
continues to mature.

There is an overall weakness in my model... it sees rural manufacturing much better than urban, because urban LDC data is not required
by congress to be public in the same way that congress requires rural interstate pipeline flows to be made public.

Over the past decade, a lackluster urban environment kept my own economic models stable. Today however, the unraveling trade-deficits
may be forcing chunks of manufacturing to urban areas (where my model cannot see them) and away from rural areas, making my model
see slowdowns that will not be real. Therefore my modeling may be breaking down and loosing its value.

...................................06/10/17.............146.7.................220.4
...................................06/17/17.............146.7.................221.5
...................................06/24/17.............146.1.................224.1
...................................07/01/17.............145.9.................225.1
...................................07/08/17.............146.2.................225.6
...................................07/15/17.............146.4.................226.5
...................................07/22/17.............146.5.................221.8
...................................07/29/17.............146.1.................215.8
...................................08/05/17.............144.8.................213.9
...................................08/12/17.............142.8.................214.4
...................................08/19/17.............141.4.................215.7
...................................08/26/17.............140.7.................219.0

...................................09/02/17.............141.3.................219.3
...................................09/09/17.............143.9.................218.0

GLOBAL ECONOMICS: For world Markets... the earlier implied switch toward US industrial production (that was evidenced in the gas flows
since the Trump election implied a switch away from foreign industrial production, and there was a strong assumption that the worlds non-US
economies were under pressure through mid-May as a result. In the United States it became a little more trendy to buy "Made-in-the-US"
products rather than foreign.

But since early June, this has become less certain and questionable. Should this be an aberration and trade-balancing resumes, there will
be a constant bleed within non-US economies... just as there was a constant bleed within the US economy when its imports ballooned through
the last two decades. Foreign economies therefore would have to be vigilant to avoid the consequences that the US collected for itself during
those years.

Should the Trump administration push forward on its campaign of trade balancing against nations with large trade-surpluses into the US, those
trade flows will be pressured. Should this progresses, global recession or worse (should US trade-demand abate) endangers those foreign
economies, and that part of their manufacturing base that is not represented by internal demand will be at great risk.

In a Trump world (and post-Trump world) the continual practice of dumping product into the US (in return for US liquidity infusions to foreign
central-reserve banks) is at some point going to fail. If Trump (or a successor) does not fix it, the markets will eventually fix it themselves,
and in a way none will like. Rising US debt is building a global bubble.

The answer (for foreign nations that are addicted to export in exchange for cash) is to self-stimulate their own economies, to allow their own
citizens to afford to purchase the works of their own hands.

US cash (in a central bank) is no alternative for gold, and no alternative for diversification. If the US dollar collapses (due to uncontrolled
debt accumulation breaking global US dollar confidence) the risk to central banks that have accumulated great hordes of US dollars will be
as substantial to those foreign nations as the risks to the US itself.

NATGAS: Last weeks reported EIA injection (65 BCF) favored the EIA-weighted model (63 BCF) over the capacity model (72 BCF).
Baseline was 81 BCF, scoring the EIA report as 16 BCF to-the-bullish. Salt-skew (9 BCF) removed, the report was brought down to
7 BCF to-the-bullish in spite of hurricane-related issues which compressed the bullishness.

For this weeks report, a very high margin of error again due to the very real possibility that they are hurricane-related scheduling issues.
Model forecasts are 95 BCF on both the EIA-wtd model and the Capacity model. Baseline works out to an 81 BCF injection, scoring both
models 14 BCF to-the-bearish on the temporary hurricane effects.

Next weeks count on milder weather (EIA-wtd model) is 69 BCF so far. Baselines are and should be improving rapidly as hurricane issues
fade.

......=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
.........Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
......_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
......08/18/17......5.8......8.1......7.8......5.6......5.3......5.1......5.2......43.0..........58..........42..........43............64..............-223..........41......-128.......-118
......08/25/17......3.9......4.6......4.1......2.8......3.7......5.2......5.7......30.0..........47..........33..........30............61..............-239............5......-126.......-132
......09/01/17....10.4....10.7....10.4......7.6......8.9......8.9......8.2......65.0..........72..........63..........65............81..............-211..........12........-92.......-113
......09/08/17....13.4....14.2....14.1....14.1....12.6....12.9....13.8......95.2..........95..........95..........................81..............-176..........45........-56.........-70
......09/15/17....12.7....14.0....13.3i...10.5i...10.0i......4.6i.....4.0i.....69.1i.........61i..........69i...........................................-154..........50........-26i........-58i

LONGER-TERM MODEL: Fall projection drops to 3645 BCF and spring to 769 BCF but at this point in summer there is way too much salt skew in
the 10-week baseline score estimate. I think we get to 3750 to 3800 this fall with the present HH pricing curve, then 1000 to 1200 on a normal winter
if the salt-skew is mentally removed. Then you have to look at the odds of a warmer/colder than normal winter after that. Odds on climate modeling
are shifting slightly to colder and we wait to see how fast the northern hemisphere cools following its frozen-inventories trough.

DAILY GLOBAL WARMING MODEL: I am preparing to move the climate modeling from a very old spreadsheet platform to a new platform, with the
transition coming starting next week. Presently, the (very) old platform will hit the wall and fail in a couple weeks as it runs out of cells.
I have been preparing for the transition for a couple years now, and test runs appear encouraging (though a little work remains to be done) and it is
possible that the model will have to go down for a couple weeks or (more likely) be possibly flagged as experimental during the transition.

I am very excited with the transition, as the old platform limited my research and I am hopeful that the modeling will be able to be advanced late this
fall, especially with the human influence modeling (part 2) which, when it becomes active, I hope will be able to actually measure and track the
strength of the anomalies. This will be a do-or-die moment for the model... if the signatures of the anomalies are all unstable, than the effectiveness
of the model will be doubtful. On the other hand, if the anomalies are stable and progressive, than the model will be able to actually track human
influence and correlate it to industrial and economic activity (from other forms of modeling) to better predict forward climate, including in regards to
the energy markets.

WITH TODAY'S RUNS of the six models, four still suggest global cooling this week, two global warming, with net cooling in both hemispheres.

In regards to total northern hemisphere frozen inventory, we move from last week's 200,000 YOY square mile surplus to a 160,000 square mile surplus,
meaning chances stay with a cooler summer for the remainder of 2017. That is, we have 160,000 square miles more of exposed frozen water
(in some form) to dissipate heat (as it melts) than last year, or about 4% more in surface area of frozen water than last year.

The presence of sea-ice (along with snow-pack and icecap) in the summer acts as a heat-sink, with the melting ice dissipating the heat build-up that
would otherwise occur as the result of sunlight relentlessly striking the sun-ward-poll during summer. My own stance is that it is the surface of frozen
water (square miles) and not the volume (cubic miles) that matters, as it is the exposed part of frozen inventory (as it melts in the sunlight and heated
air) that dissipates heat.

Thus, should frozen inventory (in square miles) be five percent less than the prior year, the ability of that hemisphere to dissipate heat is assumed to
be lessened five percent as well, allowing more hemispheric heat to go undissipated to feed a hot summer.

Come winter, the physics reverse and liquid water (by means of freezing) reintroduces its trapped heat back into the atmosphere. In wintertime,
frozen water becomes a disk where the ocean looses its ability to mitigate winter's cold. The closer to that disk you get, the closer the 24-hour
mean gets to freezing (32 F, 0 C). Get on the north side of that disk and temps fall off a cliff

In my own mind, I question whether this is the basis of ice ages... whether periods of glaciation expanse are more a product of a loss of open water
(rather than severely colder winters) which impedes mitigation of heat loss in winter. At least, it fits better with the modeling. Of course if that opinion
is right... if a hemisphere should loose all of its ice at any time before summer, than that hemisphere becomes a hell-on-earth in summer where
temperatures could go above the boiling point to find the next point where summer heat can be massively mitigated, or the thickening of the atmosphere
to the point that more sunlight can be reflected back into space to mitigate summer heat. Mine is a very radical view.

..............................========================================Estimate of Changes to Global Sea Ice Inventories (Square Miles)=========================================
..............................------------------------------------Northern Hemisphere------------------------------------................-------------------------------------Southern Hemisphere------------------------------------
......................................................................................................................Net Effect Of.........................................................................................................................Net Effect
..............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------....................................Hemispheric...............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------.....................................Hemispheric
...................................Two............One...............................Net.........................Cooling.......30-Day.......................Two...........One................................Net.........................Cooling........30-Day
......____________Years Ago_ Year Ago__Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__Average________Years Ago_ Year Ago__ Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__ Average
......09/05/17............1127459....1051331....1177900.......-14611.........-3671......-10939..........1088...................4027046....3986289....3873292........23927..........5737........18190...........-123
......09/06/17............1121436....1047813....1177369...........-531.........-3071..........2540..........1343...................4022354....3993560....3873346..............53..........5476........-5422.............-67
......09/07/17............1118380....1037895....1173836.........-3533.........-2459........-1073..........1214...................4020091....4000327....3879962..........6615..........5157..........1458..............93
......09/08/17............1120602....1042714....1173956............120.........-1877..........1997..........1490...................4016391....4002047....3896298........16336..........4690........11645............324
......09/09/17............1124081....1055846....1174070............114.........-1286..........1400..........1599...................4015520....3990805....3905275..........8977..........4134..........4842............536
......09/10/17............1129220....1063270....1168231.........-5839...........-712........-5126..........1535...................4008597....3965464....3899126.........-6149..........3516.........-9665............352
......09/11/17............1135707....1072765....1166654.........-1577...........-173........-1403..........1618...................4005064....3939311....3899623............497..........2771.........-2274............761

......Minimum............................(09/11/12).....928478............................................................................................................(03/03/11)....764252
......Maximum...........................(02/25/98)...3585826............................................................................................................(09/20/14)..4334299

Today's refining numbers...

...................................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling
...............Weeklies......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)
...............12/27/13............451...............06/27/14............397...............12/26/14............444...............06/26/15............376...............12/25/15............459...............06/24/16............384...............12/23/16............461...............06/23/17............443
...............01/03/14............447...............07/04/14............394...............01/02/15............448...............07/03/15............382...............01/01/16............450...............07/01/16............389...............12/30/16............459...............06/30/17............408
...............01/10/14............429...............07/11/14............403...............01/09/15............431...............07/10/15............399...............01/08/16............438...............07/08/16............394...............01/06/17............457...............07/07/17............442
...............01/17/14............441...............07/18/14............382...............01/16/15............428...............07/17/15............405...............01/15/16............437...............07/15/16............411...............01/13/17............454...............07/14/17............426
...............01/24/14............420...............07/25/14............379...............01/23/15............419...............07/24/15............399...............01/22/16............441...............07/22/16............411...............01/20/17............461...............07/21/17............406
...............01/31/14............392...............08/01/14............438...............01/30/15............415...............07/31/15............398...............01/29/16............424...............07/29/16............417...............01/27/17............460...............07/28/17............402
...............02/07/14............411...............08/08/14............419...............02/06/15............425...............08/07/15............395...............02/05/16............437...............08/05/16............409...............02/03/17............437...............08/04/17............405
...............02/14/14............419...............08/15/14............412...............02/13/15............435...............08/14/15............390...............02/12/16............458...............08/12/16............405...............02/10/17............463...............08/11/17............428
...............02/21/14............442...............08/22/14............381...............02/20/15............420...............08/21/15............373...............02/19/16............441...............08/19/16............401...............02/17/17............477...............08/18/17............434r
...............02/28/14............410...............08/29/14............384...............02/27/15............428...............08/28/15............384...............02/26/16............468...............08/26/16............417...............02/24/17............458...............08/25/17............425r
...............03/07/14............438...............09/05/14............395...............03/06/15............446...............09/04/15............394...............03/04/16............467...............09/02/16............426...............03/03/17............415...............09/01/17............423
...............03/14/14............431...............09/12/14............387...............03/13/15............447...............09/11/15............413...............03/11/16............449...............09/09/16............414...............03/10/17............424...............09/08/17............453
...............03/21/14............452...............09/19/14............390...............03/20/15............445...............09/18/15............402...............03/18/16............447...............09/16/16............406...............03/17/17............459
...............03/28/14............452...............09/26/14............380...............03/27/15............435...............09/25/15............379...............03/25/16............440...............09/23/16............418...............03/24/17............438
...............04/04/14............431...............10/03/14............382...............04/03/15............453...............10/02/15............386...............04/01/16............439...............09/30/16............419...............03/31/17............441
...............04/11/14............426...............10/10/14............385...............04/10/15............467...............10/09/15............390...............04/08/16............366...............10/07/16............432...............04/07/17............458
...............04/18/14............458...............10/17/14............387...............04/17/15............448...............10/16/15............395...............04/15/16............397...............10/14/16............446...............04/14/17............415
...............04/25/14............420...............10/24/14............380...............04/24/15............442...............10/23/15............406...............04/22/16............374...............10/21/16............418...............04/21/17............400
...............05/02/14............383...............10/31/14............426...............05/01/15............428...............10/30/15............428...............04/29/16............413...............10/28/16............400...............04/28/17............428
...............05/09/14............397...............11/07/14............354...............05/08/15............404...............11/06/15............424...............05/06/16............416...............11/04/16............431...............05/05/17............413
...............05/16/14............404...............11/14/14............416...............05/15/15............411...............11/13/15............452...............05/13/16............420...............11/11/16............444...............05/12/17............430
...............05/23/14............415...............11/21/14............456...............05/22/15............426...............11/20/15............467...............05/20/16............424...............11/18/16............464...............05/19/17............449
...............05/30/14............405...............11/28/14............463...............05/29/15............406...............11/27/15............465...............05/27/16............411...............11/25/16............472...............05/26/17............435
...............06/06/14............400...............12/05/14............446...............06/05/15............402...............12/04/15............459...............06/03/16............400...............12/02/16............469...............06/02/17............437
...............06/13/14............399...............12/12/14............426...............06/12/15............409...............12/11/15............446...............06/10/16............399...............12/09/16............456...............06/09/17............425
...............06/20/14............401...............12/19/14............439...............06/19/15............379...............12/18/15............455...............06/17/16............383...............12/16/16............473...............06/16/17............421

...................................Scheduling....Weeks
................Dailies......... (MMCF).........Avg

...............08/12/17.(w)......440
...............08/13/17.(w)......437
...............08/14/17............432
...............08/15/17............438
...............08/16/17............430
...............08/17/17............427
...............08/18/17............438.............434

...............08/19/17.(w)......435
...............08/20/17.(w)......432
...............08/21/17............433
...............08/22/17............436
...............08/23/17............436
...............08/24/17............432
...............08/25/17............370.............425

...............08/26/17.(w)......380
...............08/27/17.(w)......379
...............08/28/17............384
...............08/29/17............456
...............08/30/17............445
...............08/31/17............463
...............09/01/17............453r............423

...............09/02/17.(w)......446
...............09/03/17.(w)......453
...............09/04/17............455
...............09/05/17............459
...............09/06/17............444
...............09/07/17............459
...............09/08/17............459i............454i

...............09/09/17.(w)......459i
...............09/10/17.(w)......457i
...............09/11/17............439i
...............09/12/17............426i............445i

...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)