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Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

***Several models remain down due to personal family issues (over the past couple years) that previously crimped back on my work. Though
improving, I remain somewhat time constrained on both posting and modeling updates. I normally have a small backlog of modeling updates,
but that backlog swelled and while being worked through now, it still is at a point where some modeling (including industrial-side economics
and especially natgas production) is hampered by the backlog.

This has only a very minor impact on natgas storage modeling, and in no way impacts climate modeling, or degree/day modeling, It does
affect natgas production modeling the greatest, so that model is especially flagged as such in its "Part 6" post. The Generation Model also
looks to be underestimating.

MICRO-ECONOMICS: Once again a red-hot-economy-week and tandem up-move goes to now 30 days and running.

The industrial index pushed upwards from last weeks record 152.0 to 153.3 in its latest read. Its run is now at 43 days.

The consumption index gained as well, rising from 230.0 last week to 231.6 this week, though we still remain short of the 237.1 record all-time
high from August 13th 2015. Food-group scheduling remains very supportive as well, as does steel-scheduling (representative of durable goods
manufacturing), which has been running at three-year highs since May.

We are now as well into the seasonal ramp to the annual Christmas shopping rush, and the present numbers (suggestive of both positive consumer
sentiment and liquidity) suggest a vigorous shopping season more likely than not.

While this weeks numbers are overwhelmingly bullish, keep in mind that we are looking only at the very-short term here in an economy that
can change on a dime, on one news report or one political speech.

..............................................................--28.week.avg---.........---Daily.(Raw)---.........Daily
...........................................................Industrial..Personal.....Industrial..Personal.......Food
.....................................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n.........Prod'n.....Cons'n.......Group
...................................09/10/17.............144.3........217.8...........2.293r......46.38........52474
...................................09/11/17.............144.6........217.9...........2.255.......46.38........49473
...................................09/12/17.............144.9........218.1...........2.245r......46.97........51320
...................................09/13/17.............145.2........218.6...........2.235r......46.97........47368
...................................09/14/17.............145.5........219.0...........2.225.......46.83........46488
...................................09/15/17.............146.0........219.4...........2.328.......46.83........47721
...................................09/16/17.............146.4........220.0...........2.318.......50.62........48509
...................................09/17/17.............146.9........220.7...........2.302.......50.62........50160
...................................09/18/17.............147.3........221.0...........2.297.......47.08........49617
...................................09/19/17.............147.7........221.6...........2.325.......45.05........50308
...................................09/20/17.............148.1........221.6...........2.312.......43.03........51153
...................................09/21/17.............148.5........221.9...........2.313.......46.44........48297
...................................09/22/17.............148.9........222.7...........2.325.......49.95........49384
...................................09/23/17.............149.4........224.1...........2.294.......52.98........52693
...................................09/24/17.............149.7........225.4...........2.273.......52.83........54427
...................................09/25/17.............150.1........226.8...........2.272.......52.83........51064
...................................09/26/17.............150.5........227.7...........2.316.......50.95........50484
...................................09/27/17.............150.6........228.3...........2.282.......51.45........51676
...................................09/28/17.............150.7........228.7...........2.301.......50.91........50919
...................................09/29/17.............150.9........229.0...........2.309.......50.26........50606
...................................09/30/17.............151.2........229.1...........2.352.......50.26........50654
...................................10/01/17.............151.3........229.2...........2.316.......48.20........52942
...................................10/02/17.............151.4........229.4...........2.290.......48.20........50814
...................................10/03/17.............151.6........229.6...........2.364.......48.20........51866
...................................10/04/17.............151.9........230.0...........2.346.......49.19........51315
...................................10/05/17.............152.0........230.5...........2.327.......49.19........51685
...................................10/06/17.............152.2........230.9...........2.369i......49.19i.......48743i
...................................10/07/17.............152.5........231.1...........2.433i......47.94i.......50750i
...................................10/08/17.............152.7........231.4...........2.406i......47.94i.......51636i
...................................10/09/17.............152.9i.......231.5i..........2.373i......47.94i.......49292i
...................................10/10/17.............153.3i.......231.6i..........2.457i......47.94i.......49368i

MACRO-ECONOMICS: Earlier In the intermediate term, we were embroiled in an economic sea-change brought about by the election of
President Trump. Immediately following the November Elections, Optimism was brought to the industrial and investment sides of the
economy. For the consumption side however, the economy was initially pressured by the political side (consumption tends to be more
sympathetic towards Democrats while industry and investment tend to be more sympathetic towards Republicans).

............................................................Industrial...........Personal
..........................................................Production......Consumption
...................................11/05/16.............139.2.................226.0
...................................11/12/16.............139.6.................222.6
...................................11/19/16.............140.6.................221.9
...................................11/26/16.............141.9.................222.2
...................................12/03/16.............141.3.................229.6
...................................12/10/16.............141.7.................220.6
...................................12/17/16.............142.3.................220.5
...................................12/24/16.............142.6.................221.4
...................................12/31/16.............143.1.................217.5
...................................01/07/17.............144.4.................215.9
...................................01/14/17.............144.6.................213.8
...................................01/21/17.............144.8.................212.5
...................................01/28/17.............145.4.................216.7
...................................02/04/17.............144.9.................215.2
...................................02/11/17.............144.3.................214.3
...................................02/18/17.............143.6.................212.5
...................................02/25/17.............142.6.................212.1
...................................03/04/17.............141.7.................213.6
...................................03/11/17.............141.3.................214.4
...................................03/18/17.............141.5.................218.1
...................................03/25/17.............142.3.................219.9
...................................04/01/17.............143.1.................221.2
...................................04/08/17.............144.4.................223.7
...................................04/15/17.............144.2.................222.8
...................................04/22/17.............143.8.................219.5
...................................04/29/17.............144.3.................211.4
...................................05/06/17.............144.0.................210.5
...................................05/13/17.............145.2.................208.8
...................................05/20/17.............146.5.................213.5
...................................05/27/17.............146.6.................217.1
...................................06/03/17.............146.8.................217.5

The industrial side appeared to peak June 3rd (at 146.8) while the consumption side had slid (to 217.5). The industrial side then slid to
140.7 (on August 26th's weekly) but reports of overall factory strength in August combined with strongly-bullish baseline scores on natgas
suggested that that weakness was not real, but a mirage created by a shift from rural manufacturing (which my own model can see) to
urban manufacturing (which my model cannot see)..

...................................06/10/17.............146.7.................220.4
...................................06/17/17.............146.7.................221.5
...................................06/24/17.............146.1.................224.1
...................................07/01/17.............145.9.................225.1
...................................07/08/17.............146.2.................225.6
...................................07/15/17.............146.4.................226.5
...................................07/22/17.............146.5.................221.8
...................................07/29/17.............146.1.................215.8
...................................08/05/17.............144.8.................213.9
...................................08/12/17.............142.8.................214.4
...................................08/19/17.............141.4.................215.7
...................................08/26/17.............140.7.................219.0

Since the (suspect) August 26th low, strength resumed pouring into the industrial sampling, and now is emerging into the consumption
side as well. Though consumption has yet to break out above 2015 highs, a now 4-week-old tandem up-move suggests we are approaching
levels sufficient to start an upward spiral which would (if left alone) perpetuate itself until manufacturing (of all types) reaches capacity, forcing
inflation to both stimulate supply and curtail demand to shape that spiral back into organic economic growth... or into an inflationary push,
depending on Federal Reserve and US Governmental Policy. I will have more insight on this in a few weeks should the tandem up-move
persist and should the upward spiral appear to be initiating. But we may be 3 to 4 weeks away from when we have to worry about this just yet.

...................................09/02/17.............141.3.................219.3
...................................09/09/17.............143.9.................218.0
...................................09/16/17.............146.4.................220.0
...................................09/23/17.............149.4.................224.1
...................................09/30/17.............151.2.................229.1
...................................10/07/17.............152.5.................231.1

There is an overall weakness in my model... it sees rural manufacturing much better than urban, because urban LDC data is not required
by congress to be public in the same way that congress requires rural interstate pipeline flows to be made public.

Over the past decade, a lackluster urban environment kept my own economic models stable. Today however, the unraveling trade-deficits
may be forcing chunks of manufacturing to urban areas (where my model cannot see them) and away from rural areas, making my model
see slowdowns that will not be real. Therefore my modeling may be breaking down and loosing its value.

There is a plea in my comments. The FERC once tried to mandate public reporting of intrastate pipelines (equal to interstate reporting
requirements) but parts of the industry balked (especially in Texas) and the FERC was forced to back off in court. If congress could revisit
the issue, the value of the improvement to economics would be priceless. Quarterly/monthly compilations of data blind analysis and risks
recession just as driving a car in the dark without lights risks a crash. We can and should do better.

GLOBAL ECONOMICS: For world Markets... the implied switch toward US industrial production (that is evidenced in the gas flows since
the Trump election) implies a switch away from foreign industrial production, and there is a strong assumption that the world's non-US
economies are under pressure as a result. In the United States it became a little more trendy to buy "Made-in-the-US" products rather than
foreign.

At this US switch progresses, there will be a constant bleed within non-US economies... just as there was a constant bleed within the US
economy when its imports ballooned through the last two decades. Foreign economies therefore will have to be vigilant to avoid the
consequences that the US collected for itself during those years.

As long as the Trump administration push forward on its campaign of trade balancing against nations with large trade-surpluses into the US,
the trade-flows of those nations will be pressured. As this progresses, global recession or worse (should US trade-demand abate) endangers
those foreign economies, and that part of their manufacturing base that is not represented by internal demand will be at great risk.

In a Trump world (and post-Trump world) the continual practice of dumping product into the US (in return for US liquidity infusions to foreign
central-reserve banks) is at some point going to fail. If Trump (or a successor) does not fix it, the markets will eventually fix it themselves,
and in a way none will like. Rising US debt is building a global bubble.

The answer (for foreign nations that are addicted to export in exchange for cash) is to self-stimulate their own economies, to allow their own
citizens to afford to purchase the works of their own hands.

US cash (in a central bank) is no alternative for gold, and no alternative for diversification. If the US dollar collapses (due to uncontrolled
debt accumulation breaking global US dollar confidence) the risk to central banks that have accumulated great hordes of US dollars will be
as substantial to those foreign nations as the risks to the US itself.

NATGAS: Last weeks reported EIA injection (42 BCF) came in a little better than both the EIA-weighted Model (46 BCF) and the Capacity Model
(45 BCF). Baseline was 80 BCF, scoring the EIA report as 38 BCF to-the-bullish. There was little if any salt-skew indicated.

For this weeks report, model forecasts are 68 BCF (EIA-wtd model) and 87 BCF (Capacity model). Baseline works out to a 92 BCF injection
(we are in the heart of the shoulder season after all), scoring the models 5 BCF to-the-bullish (EIA-wtd) and 24 BCF to-the-bullish (Capacity Model).
Salt skew (19 BCF) aside, the EIA-weighted model is also 24 BCF to-the-bullish.

Next weeks count on renewed hurricane disruptions is just 17 BCF (EIA-wtd model) and 24 BCF (Capacity Model). Baseline scoring appears
vigorously bullish as per the last couple weeks.

......=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
.........Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
......_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
......09/15/17....14.3....15.6....14.9....13.3....12.3....13.1....13.4......97.0..........88..........93..........97............95..............-134..........65..........-5.........-43
......09/22/17....10.7......8.1......9.5......8.1......6.9......5.7......9.0......58.0..........59..........68..........58............72..............-127..........38............1........-68
......09/29/17......5.6......7.9......7.3......5.4......4.3......6.1......5.4......42.0..........45..........45..........42............80..............-158........-12.........-23.......-105
......10/06/17....12.4....13.6....14.6....13.1....11.8....10.8....11.0......87.3..........68..........87..........................92..............-152..........-7.........-26.......-106
......10/13/17......6.1......6.7i.....6.6i.....2.8i......2.1i....-0.1i....-0.1i.....24.2i.........17i.........24i...........................................-181.........-42.........-44i......-133i

LONGER-TERM MODEL: Fall projection rises to 3725 BCF and spring to 989 BCF. But there is probably still a bit too much salt-skew at this point in
the season within the 10-week baseline score estimate. I think we get to 3750 to 3800 this fall with the present HH pricing curve, then 1000 to 1200 on
a normal winter if the salt-skew is mentally removed. Then you have to look at the odds of a warmer/colder than normal winter after that. Odds on
climate modeling have shifting to neutral and we wait to see how fast the northern hemisphere cools as fall progresses.

......2017 Spring.....2049 BCF*...Fall..3725 BCF
......2018 Spring.......989 BCF.....Fall..2620 BCF
......2019 Spring......-141 BCF.....Fall..1521 BCF
......2020 Spring....-1261 BCF.....Fall....423 BCF

DAILY GLOBAL WARMING MODEL (PART 1 FROZEN INVENTORIES) shows for the latest day at least slight hemispheric warming in four of the
six models.

The Northern Hemisphere has now flipped, and has starting building frozen inventory in a physical process that releases heat trapped in water as it
refreezes. The process of releasing heat into the atmosphere moderates the winter cold from the brutality of the cold that would otherwise ensue
as the sun (and its aspects of heating the Earth) withdraws to the horizon. This is the flip-side of the summer melt, where a heat-dissipating role
(when ice melts) pulls heat from the atmosphere, to moderate the summer from the brutality of the heat that would otherwise ensue as the sun
(and its aspects of heating the Earth) advances high into the sky to bake the Earth.

In in winter, as the freezing of sea and land water progresses (starting near the pole), a white disk of completely frozen water grows from the pole
outward. Within that disk, the process of releasing heat into the atmosphere degrades, and temperatures plummet. How close that disk gets to you
(and especially how far to your south it drops and for how long) will determine how cold your winter will be.

The purposes of my modeling (in measuring snow, sea-ice, and icecap) is to attempt to measure the size of that white disk against seasonal averages,
and the speed at which that white disk grows against seasonal averages, to weight the likelihood (or unlikelihood) of an outlair-of-a-winter in the making.

In my own mind, I question whether this is the basis of ice ages... whether periods of glaciation expanse are more a product of a loss of open water
(rather than severely colder winters) which impedes mitigation of heat loss in winter. At least, it fits better with the modeling. Of course if that opinion
is right... if a hemisphere should loose all of its ice at any time before summer, than that hemisphere becomes a hell-on-earth in summer where
temperatures could go above the boiling point to find the next point where summer heat can be massively mitigated, or the thickening of the atmosphere
to the point that more sunlight can be reflected back into space to mitigate summer heat. Mine is a very radical view.

DAILY GLOBAL WARMING MODEL (PART 2- HUMAN INFLUENCE STUDY):: The transition to the new platform was completed three weeks ago and the
model has since woke up and has generated a set of crude tracking data within the six test models. Though I have to type it manually into the posts, I
have included last weeks newly-generated data in a new section in the "Part 2" post for 4 of the 6 most significant models.

In my methodology, I added a straight measure of mathematical correlation to each of the 6 models, in addition to my own "Similarity" model to further
the tracking. A tracking model for correlation was also been added to the "Part 2" posts.

In converting to the new platform, I am starting to employ methods to hunt for anomalies in the data set (where folks have messed with the data through
re calibration or otherwise) and there appears to be a lot of that. So the models presented in the "Part 2" posts remain quite crude and are in fact likely
just predecessors to what the modeling will become as it matures.

This will also be a do-or-die moment for the model... if the signatures of the anomalies are all unstable, than the effectiveness of the model will be doubtful.
On the other hand, if the anomalies are stable and progressive, than the model will be able to actually track human influence and correlate it to industrial
and economic activity (from other forms of modeling) to better predict forward climate, including in regards to the energy markets.

..............................========================================Estimate of Changes to Global Sea Ice Inventories (Square Miles)=========================================
..............................------------------------------------Northern Hemisphere------------------------------------................-------------------------------------Southern Hemisphere------------------------------------
......................................................................................................................Net Effect Of.........................................................................................................................Net Effect
..............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------....................................Hemispheric...............................----------Sea Ice Inventory----------.....................................Hemispheric
...................................Two............One...............................Net.........................Cooling.......30-Day.......................Two...........One................................Net.........................Cooling........30-Day
......____________Years Ago_ Year Ago__Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__Average________Years Ago_ Year Ago__ Present___Change__Baseline_(Warming)__ Average
......10/03/17............1292020....1299913....1325898..........8692........14948.........-6255...........-329...................4079882....3912375....3871269........12640........-2973........15613.............-58
......10/04/17............1315529....1298769....1326655............756........15060.......-14304...........-843...................4075845....3923729....3894288........23019........-3300........26319............401
......10/05/17............1344374....1307242....1327077............421........15319.......-14897...........-975...................4071511....3918962....3905952........11664........-3817........15481............311
......10/06/17............1376024....1312934....1347738........20661........15686..........4974...........-893...................4069768....3891697....3910015..........4063.........-4440..........8503............774
......10/07/17............1408387....1313252....1365851........18113........16090..........2022...........-790...................4062308....3869276....3905469.........-4545........-4983............438............740
......10/08/17............1436020....1314496....1394960........29109........16588........12520...........-438...................4057627....3859730....3915320..........9850.........-5440........15290............860
......10/09/17............1461327....1319014....1395099............139........17256.......-17116.........-1054...................4049309....3858479....3915711............391........-5742..........6134............901

......Minimum............................(09/11/12).....928478............................................................................................................(03/03/11)....764252
......Maximum...........................(02/25/98)...3585826............................................................................................................(09/20/14)..4334299

Today's refining numbers...

...................................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling
...............Weeklies......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)
...............12/27/13............451...............06/27/14............397...............12/26/14............444...............06/26/15............376...............12/25/15............459...............06/24/16............384...............12/23/16............461...............06/23/17............443
...............01/03/14............447...............07/04/14............394...............01/02/15............448...............07/03/15............382...............01/01/16............450...............07/01/16............389...............12/30/16............459...............06/30/17............408
...............01/10/14............429...............07/11/14............403...............01/09/15............431...............07/10/15............399...............01/08/16............438...............07/08/16............394...............01/06/17............457...............07/07/17............442
...............01/17/14............441...............07/18/14............382...............01/16/15............428...............07/17/15............405...............01/15/16............437...............07/15/16............411...............01/13/17............454...............07/14/17............426
...............01/24/14............420...............07/25/14............379...............01/23/15............419...............07/24/15............399...............01/22/16............441...............07/22/16............411...............01/20/17............461...............07/21/17............406
...............01/31/14............392...............08/01/14............438...............01/30/15............415...............07/31/15............398...............01/29/16............424...............07/29/16............417...............01/27/17............460...............07/28/17............402
...............02/07/14............411...............08/08/14............419...............02/06/15............425...............08/07/15............395...............02/05/16............437...............08/05/16............409...............02/03/17............437...............08/04/17............405
...............02/14/14............419...............08/15/14............412...............02/13/15............435...............08/14/15............390...............02/12/16............458...............08/12/16............405...............02/10/17............463...............08/11/17............428
...............02/21/14............442...............08/22/14............381...............02/20/15............420...............08/21/15............373...............02/19/16............441...............08/19/16............401...............02/17/17............477...............08/18/17............434
...............02/28/14............410...............08/29/14............384...............02/27/15............428...............08/28/15............384...............02/26/16............468...............08/26/16............417...............02/24/17............458...............08/25/17............425
...............03/07/14............438...............09/05/14............395...............03/06/15............446...............09/04/15............394...............03/04/16............467...............09/02/16............426...............03/03/17............415...............09/01/17............423
...............03/14/14............431...............09/12/14............387...............03/13/15............447...............09/11/15............413...............03/11/16............449...............09/09/16............414...............03/10/17............424...............09/08/17............454
...............03/21/14............452...............09/19/14............390...............03/20/15............445...............09/18/15............402...............03/18/16............447...............09/16/16............406...............03/17/17............459...............09/15/17............447
...............03/28/14............452...............09/26/14............380...............03/27/15............435...............09/25/15............379...............03/25/16............440...............09/23/16............418...............03/24/17............438...............09/22/17............444
...............04/04/14............431...............10/03/14............382...............04/03/15............453...............10/02/15............386...............04/01/16............439...............09/30/16............419...............03/31/17............441...............09/29/17............435
...............04/11/14............426...............10/10/14............385...............04/10/15............467...............10/09/15............390...............04/08/16............366...............10/07/16............432...............04/07/17............458...............10/06/17............454i
...............04/18/14............458...............10/17/14............387...............04/17/15............448...............10/16/15............395...............04/15/16............397...............10/14/16............446...............04/14/17............415...............10/13/17............459i
...............04/25/14............420...............10/24/14............380...............04/24/15............442...............10/23/15............406...............04/22/16............374...............10/21/16............418...............04/21/17............400
...............05/02/14............383...............10/31/14............426...............05/01/15............428...............10/30/15............428...............04/29/16............413...............10/28/16............400...............04/28/17............428
...............05/09/14............397...............11/07/14............354...............05/08/15............404...............11/06/15............424...............05/06/16............416...............11/04/16............431...............05/05/17............413
...............05/16/14............404...............11/14/14............416...............05/15/15............411...............11/13/15............452...............05/13/16............420...............11/11/16............444...............05/12/17............430
...............05/23/14............415...............11/21/14............456...............05/22/15............426...............11/20/15............467...............05/20/16............424...............11/18/16............464...............05/19/17............449
...............05/30/14............405...............11/28/14............463...............05/29/15............406...............11/27/15............465...............05/27/16............411...............11/25/16............472...............05/26/17............435
...............06/06/14............400...............12/05/14............446...............06/05/15............402...............12/04/15............459...............06/03/16............400...............12/02/16............469...............06/02/17............437
...............06/13/14............399...............12/12/14............426...............06/12/15............409...............12/11/15............446...............06/10/16............399...............12/09/16............456...............06/09/17............425
...............06/20/14............401...............12/19/14............439...............06/19/15............379...............12/18/15............455...............06/17/16............383...............12/16/16............473...............06/16/17............421

...................................Scheduling....Weeks
................Dailies......... (MMCF).........Avg

...............09/09/17.(w)......459
...............09/10/17.(w)......457
...............09/11/17............445
...............09/12/17............445
...............09/13/17............450
...............09/14/17............441
...............09/15/17............434.............447

...............09/16/17.(w)......458
...............09/17/17.(w)......451
...............09/18/17............451
...............09/19/17............449
...............09/20/17............440
...............09/21/17............434
...............09/22/17............422.............444

...............09/23/17.(w)......424
...............09/24/17.(w)......420
...............09/25/17............422
...............09/26/17............436
...............09/27/17............444
...............09/28/17............442
...............09/29/17............455.............435

...............09/30/17.(w)......478
...............10/01/17.(w)......450
...............10/02/17............440
...............10/03/17............442
...............10/04/17............453
...............10/05/17............457
...............10/06/17............456i............454i

...............10/07/17.(w)......480i
...............10/08/17.(w)......448i
...............10/09/17............448i............459i

...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)