11 members / 435 guests (24 hours)
$131.90
-$1.00 (-0.75%)
High: $134.92
Low: $131.75
Volume: 1,336,063

An Interesting IDB update! And how IDB got even faster.  IDB is fast, reliable, and FREE to use. Just join and start posting!

Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link)
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models)

Robry on IDB............................................... http://www.investordiscussionboard.com/boards/cwei

Robry Spreadsheet Software...................... http://robry825.com

Robry Raw Data.(.gsc format).................... http://robry825.com/Robry_Data_Historical.gsc
Robry Raw Data.(.ods format).................... http://robry825.com/Robry_Data_Historical.ods
......* (Data files are contributions to the public domain and as such
.........may be republished & redistributed, with or without attribution.)

=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
01/13/17...-43.5..-40.6...-37.5...-31.6...-30.2..-29.3...-30.3...-242.0.......-209......-242.......-243.........-189..............-407.........-69......-324.......-286
01/20/17...-22.2..-21.2...-19.4...-14.7...-15.0..-15.0...-11.5...-118.0.......-102......-113.......-119.........-102..............-325.........-16......-235.......-219
01/27/17.....-8.2....-6.6.....-9.9...-14.8...-13.9..-15.4...-18.2.....-86.0.........-84........-85.........-87...........-68..............-251..........68.......-170......-130
02/03/17...-22.4..-20.5...-22.5...-21.0...-18.5..-20.0...-22.0...-146.0.......-145......-146.......-152.........-138..............-322..........49.......-224......-140
02/10/17...-22.5..-17.7...-14.0...-11.6...-11.4..-15.4...-21.3...-113.0.......-126......-120.......-114.........-106..............-297..........93.......-210......-103
02/17/17...-12.2....-7.9...-10.9...-13.0...-14.4..-17.5...-13.1.....-88.0.......-109........-80.........-89...........-71..............-245........166.......-170........-52
02/24/17.....-1.0......2.9......2.6......1.4......1.7......0.5....-1.1........7.0.........-21............7............7............23..............-186........298.......-131..........54
03/03/17.....-7.1..-11.1...-11.4.....-8.6.....-4.4....-8.0...-13.5.....-63.0.........-62........-66.........-68...........-43..............-198........365.......-125........126
03/10/17...-13.6..-11.2.....-7.2.....-4.2.....-3.0....-6.3.....-7.5.....-52.0.........-85........-53.........-53...........-39..............-233........400.......-160........140
03/17/17...-22.9..-21.1...-20.4...-22.3...-23.2..-21.8...-18.3...-149.0.......-154......-155.......-150.........-138..............-401........263.......-317............5
03/24/17.....-6.3....-6.7.....-4.7.....-3.1.....-6.7..-10.9.....-4.6.....-42.0.........-69........-45.........-43...........-16..............-420........250.......-346........-19
03/31/17.....-0.2......2.6......1.4......0.2....-0.1.....-0.9.....-1.0........2.0.........-12............0............2............31.............-424........268.......-352...........-5
04/07/17.....-1.8......2.5......3.6......2.8......2.3......1.3....-0.7......10.0............5............5..........10............43..............-419........262.......-343...........-9
04/14/17......2.7......7.9....11.5......9.5......9.2......7.5......8.8......57.2..........49..........57..........................67..............-360........283......-285............1
04/21/17....11.3....12.5i...12.4i.....7.1i......6.2i.....1.9i.....2.1i.....53.5i..........52i.........54i...........................................-360........291.......-278i.........15i

================== EIA-Weighted Model Track Record ==================
.................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
......................................Capacity....Wkly...Wkly....Model.....EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week.........Model.....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date.......Prod.....East....West
....Run........Ending...........(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
07/01/15..(06/26/15)...........................75........69.........-6
07/08/15..(07/03/15)...........................93........91.........-2
07/14/15..(07/10/15).........................106........99.........-7
07/21/15..(07/17/15)...........................67........68........+1.(E)
07/28/15..(07/24/15)...........................56........52.........-4
08/06/15..(07/31/15)...........................45........32.......-13.......................06/26/15.....-5.6.....-7.3.....-0.5....(Generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
08/12/15..(08/07/15)...........................66........65.........-1
08/18/15..(08/14/15)...........................61........53.........-8
08/25/15..(08/21/15)...........................67........69........+2
09/03/15..(08/28/15)...........................94........86.........-8.(F)
09/09/15..(09/04/15)...........................79........68.......-11
09/16/15..(09/11/15)...........................75........73.........-2
09/23/15..(09/18/15).........................107......106.........-1
09/30/15..(09/25/15).........................102........98.........-4
10/07/15..(10/02/15).........................102........95.........-7
10/14/15..(10/09/15)...........................95......100........+5
10/20/15..(10/16/15)...........................83........81.........-2
10/28/15..(10/23/15)...........................62........63........+1
11/04/15..(10/30/15)...........................53........52.........-1
11/10/15..(11/06/15)...........................40........56......+16
11/17/15..(11/13/15)...........................10........15........+5
11/25/15..(11/20/15).............................6..........9........+3
12/02/15..(11/27/15)..........................-42.......-53.......-11.......................12/08/15......n/a......n/a......n/a....(Robry825 model undercount error... EIA correct)
12/09/15..(12/04/15)..........................-61.......-76.......-15
12/17/15..(12/11/15)..........................-33.......-34.........-1
12/24/15..(12/18/15)..........................-27.......-32.........-5
12/31/15..(12/25/15)..........................-62.......-58........+4
01/06/16..(01/01/16)..........................-67.....-113......+46.......................(Pre-EIA Robry825 model adjustments (Original "Official" estimate)
01/08/16..(01/01/16)..........................-91.....-113......+22.......................(Post-EIA Robry model adjustments)
01/14/16..(01/01/16)..........................-95*...-113......+18.......................(*01/26/16 run, with ongoing internal modeling adjustments)
01/14/16..(01/08/16)........................-157.....-168......+11
01/20/16..(01/15/16)........................-178.....-178............
01/26/16..(01/22/16)........................-201.....-211......+10
02/03/16..(01/29/16)........................-147.....-155........+8
02/10/16..(02/05/16)..........................-76.......-70.........-6
02/18/16..(02/12/16)........................-161.....-158.........-3
02/24/16..(02/19/16)........................-126.....-122.........-4
03/02/16..(02/26/16)..........................-45.......-48........+3
03/08/16..(03/04/16)..........................-60.......-57.........-3
03/16/16..(03/11/16).............................3.........-1........+4
03/22/16..(03/18/16)...........................28........15......+13
03/30/16..(03/25/16)..........................-22.......-25........+3
04/07/16..(04/01/16)...........................14........12........+2
04/13/16..(04/08/16).............................2.........-3........+5
04/20/16..(04/15/16)...........................11..........7........+4
04/27/16..(04/22/16)...........................69........73.........-4
05/04/16..(04/29/16)...........................62........68.........-6
05/11/16..(05/06/16)...........................57........56........+1
05/18/16..(05/13/16)...........................66........73.........-7
05/25/16..(05/20/16)...........................60........71.......-11

.................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
......................................Capacity....Wkly...Wkly....Model.....EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week.........Model.....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date.......Prod.....East....West
....Run........Ending...........(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
06/01/16..(05/27/16).............86***.....77........82........-5......................***Capacity model's 86 BCF = "official" forcast.
06/08/16..(06/03/16).............73***.....68........65.......+3......................***Capacity model's 73 BCF = "official" forcast.
06/15/16..(06/10/16).............80..........72........69.......+3
06/22/16..(06/17/16).............73..........62........62...........
06/28/16..(06/24/16).............44..........36........42.(G)..-6
07/06/16..(07/01/16).............59..........47........39.......+8
07/12/16..(07/08/16).............67..........68........64.......+4
07/20/16..(07/15/16).............48..........35........34.......+1
07/27/16..(07/22/16).............41..........28........17.....+11
08/03/16..(07/29/16).............21...........-5.........-6.......+1
08/11/16..(08/05/16).............40..........32........29.......+3
08/17/16..(08/12/16).............33..........24........22.......+2
08/24/16..(08/19/16).............22............2........11........-9
08/31/16..(08/26/16).............47..........50........51........-1
09/07/16..(09/02/16).............38..........41........36.......+5
09/13/16..(09/09/16).............52i.........57........62........-5
09/20/16..(09/16/16).............42..........42........52......-10
09/28/16..(09/23/16).............46..........45........49........-4
10/05/16..(09/30/16).............81..........71........80........-9
10/12/16..(10/07/16).............65..........94........79.....+15
10/19/16..(10/14/16).............53..........89........77.....+12
10/25/16..(10/21/16).............50..........86........73.....+13
11/02/16..(10/28/16).............27..........58........54.......+4
11/10/16..(11/04/16).............25..........47........54........-7
11/16/16..(11/11/16).............13..........17........30......-13
11/23/16..(11/18/16)..............-6...........-1........-2.......+3
12/01/16..(11/25/16)............-48.........-55......-50........-5
12/08/16..(12/02/16)............-36.........-35......-42.......+7
12/13/16..(12/09/16)..........-109.......-129....-147.....+18
12/21/16..(12/16/16)..........-169.......-198....-209.....+11
12/27/16..(12/23/16)..........-200.......-237....-237...........
01/03/17..(12/30/16)............-87.........-82......-49......-33....Original projection, made in error without the weekly actuals.
01/03/17..(12/30/16)............-46.........-60......-49......-11....Back-corrected projection, made correctly with the weekly actuals.
01/09/17..(01/06/17)..........-115.......-131....-151.....+20
01/17/17..(01/13/17)..........-208.......-228....-243.....+15
01/26/17..(01/20/17)..........-102.......-107....-119.....+12
01/30/17..(01/27/17)............-84.........-81......-87.......+6
02/07/17..(02/03/17)..........-145.......-143....-152.......+9
02/14/17..(02/10/17)..........-126.......-119....-114........-5
02/21/17..(02/17/17)..........-109.........-79......-89.....+10
02/28/17..(02/24/17)............-21............7..........7...........
03/07/17..(03/03/17)............-62.........-64......-68.......+4
03/15/17..(03/10/17)............-85.........-54......-53........-1
03/21/17..(03/17/17)..........-154.......-155....-150........-5
03/28/17..(03/24/17)............-77i........-48i......-43.......-5
04/04/17..(03/31/17)............-12...........-0..........2.......-2
04/11/17..(04/07/17)...............5............5........10.......+5
04/18/17..(04/14/17).............49..........57i.......??
04/18/17..(04/21/17).............52i.........54i.......??

Notes (On above):
......(E) For purposes of analysis, the 7 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been added to the EIA's originally-reported 61 BCF injection estimate.
......(F) For purposes of analysis, the 8 BCF reclassification (of base gas to working gas) has been deducted from the EIA's originally-reported 94 BCF injection estimate.
......(G) For purposes of analysis, the 5 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been added to the EIA's originally-reported 37 BCF injection estimate.

Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the
.......................................EIA's weekly data.

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly
..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA
..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model)
..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily
..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way
..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered
..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.

v