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Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation)

==============Daily Model Baseline Score================
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
12/09/16......5.3......4.9......4.5......5.2......3.3......1.6.....-2.4....22.5
12/16/16.....-0.7....-0.7......4.4......7.2......7.0......3.7......2.2....23.2
12/23/16......7.4......7.3......6.3......4.8....11.2....13.6....17.0....67.5
12/30/16.....-1.0......0.9....-2.3......1.3......1.3.....-3.7.....-3.5.....-7.1
01/06/17......3.0......4.2......5.5......1.2......2.6.....-2.3....-7.4......6.8
01/13/17.....-2.4....-3.2......1.1......5.1....16.4....21.6....17.0....55.6
01/20/17......1.7......1.1......2.2.....-0.7......3.6......6.4......4.4....18.8
01/27/17......4.7......6.4......4.6......1.1......0.2......2.8......0.2....20.0
02/03/17......0.5......1.5......2.6......0.9......3.0......2.7.....-1.7......9.5
02/10/17.....-2.2....-0.3......2.9......4.1......5.3......1.5......2.2....13.4
02/17/17......0.2......3.1......0.5i.................................................3.8i
 
 
 
===========Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score============
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
12/09/16......3.2......3.3......1.5......1.2......2.0......5.6......6.4....23.2
12/16/16......9.7......6.2......5.8......8.7....13.1....17.1....19.5....80.0
12/23/16....19.2....16.6....21.7....18.7....13.8......8.3......9.1..107.5
12/30/16...-10.9..-10.3...-14.4...-12.7...-10.0..-12.0.....-8.3...-78.7
01/06/17......0.9.....-0.3....-2.3.....-8.6.....-2.0......4.3......9.0......1.0
01/13/17....19.1....18.0....15.0......6.0......4.8......4.7......5.3....73.0
01/20/17.....-2.7....-2.9.....-5.8...-14.1...-13.3..-11.8...-15.4...-66.0
01/27/17...-18.1..-17.6...-15.3...-13.7...-13.6..-10.5.....-6.9...-95.8
02/03/17.....-2.1....-2.3.....-1.8.....-5.6.....-7.3....-4.7.....-2.4...-26.2
02/10/17.....-0.2....-4.3.....-9.8...-14.2...-13.2....-6.9.....-0.7...-49.2
02/17/17...-11.3..-13.7...-12.3i..............................................-37.3i
 
 
 
===================Fair-Value Model====================
.................----10 Week Average-----
__Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal________
01/14/17......3.32......3.16.....15.81.....Fair-Value Much > 3.16
01/15/17......3.30......3.17.....15.77.....Fair-Value Much > 3.17
01/16/17......3.27......3.19.....15.73.....Fair-Value Much > 3.19
01/17/17......3.22......3.20.....15.69.....Fair-Value Much > 3.20
01/18/17......3.23......3.22.....15.64.....Fair-Value Much > 3.22
01/19/17......3.27......3.23.....15.60.....Fair-Value Much > 3.23
01/20/17......3.33......3.25.....15.55.....Fair-Value Much > 3.25
01/21/17......3.38......3.27.....15.51.....Fair-Value Much > 3.27
01/22/17......3.44......3.28.....15.47.....Fair-Value Much > 3.28
01/23/17......3.46......3.30.....15.45.....Fair-Value Much > 3.30
01/24/17......3.41......3.31.....15.43.....Fair-Value Much > 3.31
01/25/17......3.32......3.32.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.32
01/26/17......3.30......3.33.....15.37.....Fair-Value Much > 3.33
01/27/17......3.24......3.34.....15.36.....Fair-Value Much > 3.34
01/28/17......3.15......3.35.....15.34.....Fair-Value Much > 3.35
01/29/17......3.15......3.36.....15.33.....Fair-Value Much > 3.36
01/30/17......3.23......3.37.....15.32.....Fair-Value Much > 3.37
01/31/17......3.26......3.37.....15.33.....Fair-Value Much > 3.37
02/01/17......3.31......3.38.....15.33.....Fair-Value Much > 3.38
02/02/17......3.35......3.38.....15.34.....Fair-Value Much > 3.38
02/03/17......3.32......3.39.....15.35.....Fair-Value Much > 3.39
02/04/17......3.29......3.39.....15.36.....Fair-Value Much > 3.39
02/05/17......3.30......3.40.....15.38.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
02/06/17......3.34......3.40.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
02/07/17......3.32......3.40.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
02/08/17......3.31......3.40.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
02/09/17......3.29......3.40.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
02/10/17......3.29......3.40.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
02/11/17......3.21......3.40.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
02/12/17......3.19......3.40.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
02/13/17......3.13......3.40.....15.41.....Fair-Value Much > 3.40
 
 
 
Fair Value Crossings (From 05/19/13 Model Run)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....01/03/02......2.38........8.31.....(on $19.75 oil)
.....06/23/02......3.38........7.79.....(on   26.33 oil)
.....07/30/02......3.13........8.38.....(on   26.26 oil)
.....03/11/03......6.54........5.31.....(on   34.76 oil)
.....03/26/04......5.49........6.46.....(on   35.46 oil)
.....05/24/04......5.81........6.52.....(on   37.83 oil)
.....02/25/05......6.28........7.41.....(on   46.51 oil)
.....07/16/06......6.07......11.80.....(on   71.68 oil)
.....10/13/06......5.65......11.81.....(on   66.65 oil)
.....08/16/07......6.61......10.86.....(on   71.87 oil)
.....04/14/08......9.17......11.16.....(on 102.34 oil)
.....09/11/09......3.08......21.99.....(on   67.82 oil)
.....01/31/10......5.32......14.35.....(on   76.37 oil)
.....02/08/12......2.87......34.54.....(on   99.09 oil)
.....06/09/13......4.08......22.89.....(on   93.38 oil)
.....10/09/13......3.52......30.18.....(on 106.20 oil)
.....10/23/13......3.60......29.26.....(on 105.24 oil)
.....12/09/13......3.69......26.31.....(on   97.19 oil)
.....04/15/14......5.13......19.73.....(on 101.28 oil)
.....11/26/15......2.27......19.69.....(on   44.73 oil)
.....03/04/15......2.08......15.42.....(on   32.01 oil)
.....03/23/15......1.92......17.11.....(on   32.90 oil)