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Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation)

==============Daily Model Baseline Score================
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
12/08/17......3.3......1.7......0.7......1.0.....-1.4....-2.2.....-6.0.....-2.8
12/15/17.....-1.1....-1.9.....-1.2......0.4.....-2.1.....-1.8....-0.3.....-8.0
12/22/17.....-2.5....-1.1.....-0.1......5.9......3.5......4.7......4.3....14.8
12/29/17......7.5......5.8.....-2.1....-4.7.....-9.3.....-5.3.....-1.9..-10.0
01/05/18......9.1......6.1......1.4......1.0......2.7......7.7......7.5....35.4
01/12/18.....-8.7..-10.5.....-4.2......2.8......5.8......6.8......8.0......0.0
01/19/18......8.2......4.7......1.4......1.9......0.7......3.9....10.5....31.5
01/26/18......0.2......3.4......3.9......1.7.....-5.5....-3.7.....-2.5.....-2.6
02/02/18......2.6......4.0......1.1.....-5.1....-7.5.....-3.0.....-4.8...-12.7
02/09/18......1.0......2.5......2.2.....-1.7....-0.1......2.2......5.0....11.0
02/16/18......4.5......4.8......3.8i...............................................13.1i

===========Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score============
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
12/08/17.....-2.6....-5.4.....-9.3.....-9.9.....-8.0....-0.3......1.2...-34.3
12/15/17......7.3......5.5......2.2......3.4......6.2......8.8....10.6....44.1
12/22/17......4.8......0.8.....-4.2....-6.3.....-7.9.....-0.5......0.2...-13.0
12/29/17......2.1......4.7......5.8....12.0....13.2....19.0....19.9....76.7
01/05/18....28.9....31.3....34.5....34.1....28.4....29.2....30.6..217.1
01/12/18....16.0......9.9......3.5.....-1.2....-3.5.....-7.4.....-4.4....13.0
01/19/18......9.6....19.0....17.2....14.8....14.8....16.0....12.6..104.0
01/26/18.....-9.8..-13.2...-14.9...-16.1...-15.6....-7.2.....-8.5...-85.3
02/02/18...-10.8..-12.9.....-9.2.....-5.0.....-6.2....-6.4.....-3.8...-54.3
02/09/18......5.9......3.3......4.8......3.8......2.5......5.0......7.2....32.5
02/16/18......1.6.....-1.1......0.4i.................................................0.9i

===================Fair-Value Model====================
.................----10 Week Average-----
__Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal________
01/13/18.....-0.11......3.09.....18.91......Fair-Value > 3.09
01/14/18.....-0.10r.....3.11.....18.84......Fair-Value > 3.11
01/15/18.....-0.14......3.12.....18.79......Fair-Value > 3.12
01/16/18.....-0.12r.....3.15.....18.64......Fair-Value > 3.15
01/17/18.....-0.07r.....3.16.....18.62......Fair-Value > 3.16
01/18/18......0.02r.....3.16.....18.63......Fair-Value > 3.16
01/19/18......0.23......3.16.....18.66......Fair-Value > 3.16
01/20/18......0.28......3.17.....18.68......Fair-Value > 3.17
01/21/18......0.40......3.17.....18.71......Fair-Value > 3.17
01/22/18......0.48......3.17.....18.74......Fair-Value > 3.17
01/23/18......0.52......3.17.....18.76......Fair-Value > 3.17
01/24/18......0.49......3.18.....18.76......Fair-Value > 3.18
01/25/18......0.44r.....3.18.....18.77......Fair-Value > 3.18
01/26/18......0.37......3.19.....18.77......Fair-Value > 3.19
01/27/18......0.43r.....3.20.....18.78......Fair-Value > 3.20
01/28/18......0.54r.....3.20.....18.78......Fair-Value > 3.20
01/29/18......0.58r.....3.21.....18.78......Fair-Value > 3.21
01/30/18......0.52r.....3.22.....18.77......Fair-Value > 3.22
01/31/18......0.47r.....3.22.....18.78......Fair-Value > 3.22
02/01/18......0.50r.....3.22.....18.81......Fair-Value > 3.22
02/02/18......0.40r.....3.22.....18.84......Fair-Value > 3.22
02/03/18......0.46r.....3.22.....18.88......Fair-Value > 3.22
02/04/18......0.53r.....3.22.....18.91......Fair-Value > 3.22
02/05/18......0.58r.....3.22.....18.94......Fair-Value > 3.22
02/06/18......0.59......3.22.....18.98......Fair-Value > 3.22
02/07/18......0.65......3.21.....19.03......Fair-Value > 3.21
02/08/18......0.70......3.21.....19.06......Fair-Value > 3.21
02/09/18......0.81......3.21.....19.09......Fair-Value > 3.21
02/10/18......0.82......3.20.....19.11......Fair-Value > 3.20
02/11/18......0.87......3.20.....19.13......Fair-Value > 3.20
02/12/18......0.91......3.20.....19.17......Fair-Value > 3.20

Fair Value Crossings (From 05/19/13 Model Run)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....01/03/02......2.38........8.31.....(on $19.75 oil)
.....06/23/02......3.38........7.79.....(on 26.33 oil)
.....07/30/02......3.13........8.38.....(on 26.26 oil)
.....03/11/03......6.54........5.31.....(on 34.76 oil)
.....03/26/04......5.49........6.46.....(on 35.46 oil)
.....05/24/04......5.81........6.52.....(on 37.83 oil)
.....02/25/05......6.28........7.41.....(on 46.51 oil)
.....07/16/06......6.07......11.80.....(on 71.68 oil)
.....10/13/06......5.65......11.81.....(on 66.65 oil)
.....08/16/07......6.61......10.86.....(on 71.87 oil)
.....04/14/08......9.17......11.16.....(on 102.34 oil)
.....09/11/09......3.08......21.99.....(on 67.82 oil)
.....01/31/10......5.32......14.35.....(on 76.37 oil)
.....02/08/12......2.87......34.54.....(on 99.09 oil)
.....06/09/13......4.08......22.89.....(on 93.38 oil)
.....10/09/13......3.52......30.18.....(on 106.20 oil)
.....10/23/13......3.60......29.26.....(on 105.24 oil)
.....12/09/13......3.69......26.31.....(on 97.19 oil)
.....04/15/14......5.13......19.73.....(on 101.28 oil)
.....11/26/15......2.27......19.69.....(on 44.73 oil)
.....03/04/15......2.08......15.42.....(on 32.01 oil)
.....03/23/15......1.92......17.11.....(on 32.90 oil)
.....12/16/17......2.90......19.07.....(on 55.23 oil) *** Present
.....12/20/17......2.88......19.29.....(on 55.65 oil) *** Present
.....12/25/17......2.86......19.63.....(on 56.14 oil) *** Present
.....01/18/18......3.16......18.63.....(on 58.95 oil) *** Anomalous - but maybe not on surging economy