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Re: Black Blade, any thoughts on what's happening with oil? and where it's going? tia eom

Tonight's API data is a little bearish but tomorrow morning we get the EIA pretroleum inventory status report which is more accurate since Valero doesn't report data to API and that's why the data tends to be off between the API and EIA. The API is a general guide but since Valero is the big fish among refiners it tends to skew the data for the API. This is why oil prices got hammered tonight after a smaller decline earlier in the day when the IEA said that global oil demand is actually much weaker than everyone thought. The IEA lowered its demand forecast by 50,000 bpd in 2017 and 190,000 bpd in 2018, raising concerns that the oil market is actually not as healthy as it seems. That puts demand growth at 1.5 million barrels per day this year, and only 1.3 mb/d in 2018. I don't really hold much respect for the IEA as they are wrong so often as to be almost meaningless when it comes to their data. That said, it does give the investor community some jitters I watch the EIA more closely for the weekly data releases (Wednesdays), the EIA STEO report and This Week In Petroleum report (all from the EIA). I also tend to watch general fundamental indicators as well and with the domestic economy in what appears to be a recovery we should see a rise in energy demand and of course with winter upong us we could see spikes should we experience colder than normal temps further increasing energy demand. Then again some "black swan' could simply dive in and upset everything either direction so we must make our best "educated" guesses of course. That said, the current trend suggests we may see prices resume higher in coming months ...

From my weekly update (last week):

Refinery utilization nears 90% as refiners recover from Hurricane Harvey and return to near full production. As the US Dollar strengthens it puts pressure on commodities such as petroleum. However, geopolitical events such as the current purges within the Saudi kingdom and the threat of a new Middle East war that threatens to engulf all the major OPEC producers, the price of oil has worked above $57/bbl for WTI. The stronger earnings from over 70% of companies reporting this quarter suggest an economic recovery may be under way which would under normal circumstances lead to strong energy demand. That remains to be seen but the signs look better than they have for a quite some time now.